{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "2218b64c-c2fe-405c-a172-86faff69ed0c",
    "symbol": "600618",
    "name": "Shanghai Chlor-Alkali Chemical Co., Ltd.",
    "exchange": "SHH",
    "country": "CN",
    "assetType": "equity"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "000001.SS",
    "stage": 4,
    "stage_name": "Declining",
    "phase": "4b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining",
    "transition": "stage_4_declining",
    "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact",
    "confidence": 96.0,
    "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion",
    "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction",
    "architecture_gate": "down",
    "architecture_direction": -51.292,
    "architecture_energy": 45.751,
    "architecture_maturity": 85.175,
    "architecture_confidence": 66.69,
    "architecture_tenure": "Developing",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 15.43,
        "rotation_up": 26.94,
        "upward_expansion": 19.25,
        "deceleration": 66.83,
        "rotation_down": 46.61,
        "downward_expansion": 71.59
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        10.116046,
        10.079325,
        10.615334,
        11.384768
      ],
      "activity_state": "Wide",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Improving",
      "price_acceptance": -0.666667
    },
    "latest_close": 10.39,
    "trend_reference": 12.415391,
    "distance_from_trend": -0.163135,
    "trend_direction": "Weakening",
    "fair_value": 9.965967,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.042548,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": -12.455799,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": -0.412994,
    "excess_performance": -0.369791,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.163135,
        "read": "Below"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.053801,
        "read": "Falling"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.042548,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.219826,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.124558,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.093643,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.412994,
        "read": "Negative"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": false,
        "value": 0.646748,
        "read": "Supply-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 29705266,
      "relative_activity": 0.709047,
      "balance": 0.646748,
      "dry_up": 0.908741,
      "accumulation_observations": 2,
      "distribution_observations": 4
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.078303,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.423375,
      "from_high_reference": -0.428807,
      "from_low_reference": 0.113557
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 12.415391,
      "fair_value_reference": 9.965967,
      "structural_low": 9.33046,
      "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 22,
        "median_return": 0.010703,
        "positive_rate": 0.545455,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.409091,
        "median_excess_return": 0.006016,
        "regime_survival": 0.681818,
        "best_return": 0.178448,
        "worst_return": -0.079808,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 9,
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        "positive_rate": 0.555556,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.444444,
        "median_excess_return": 0.01129,
        "regime_survival": 0.333333,
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        "worst_return": -0.078029,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 6,
        "median_return": 0.052606,
        "positive_rate": 0.5,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.5,
        "median_excess_return": 0.051311,
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        "worst_return": -0.119985,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 3,
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        "worst_return": -0.106319,
        "sufficient": false
      }
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      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
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      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
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        "active": false
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        "regime": "downward_expansion",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
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        "fair_value": 9.941466,
        "relative_strength": -15.637332,
        "stage": 4,
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        "modifier": "Established contraction",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
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        "typical_volume": 44960969.65,
        "trend": 12.465057,
        "fair_value": 9.954338,
        "relative_strength": -9.688964,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -64.388301,
        "energy": 57.2147,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 10.39,
        "volume": 29705266,
        "typical_volume": 41894663.05,
        "trend": 12.415391,
        "fair_value": 9.965967,
        "relative_strength": -12.455799,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established contraction",
        "gate": "down",
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      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}