{ "ticker": { "uuid": "221ea488-06f1-4981-8bcc-43f73cdf575f", "symbol": "NICA", "name": "Nanologica AB (publ)", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 87.822, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -18.753, "architecture_energy": 37.899, "architecture_maturity": 5.894, "architecture_confidence": 64.618, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 47.6, "rotation_up": 17.35, "upward_expansion": 22.68, "deceleration": 50.67, "rotation_down": 59.27, "downward_expansion": 52.35 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.449533, 0.469073, 0.502286, 0.492103 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 0.46, "trend_reference": 0.483533, "distance_from_trend": -0.04867, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.548217, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.870357, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -46.687277, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.127451, "excess_performance": 0.065957, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.04867, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.210257, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.870357, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.022408, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.466873, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.081213, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.127451, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.657732, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1558929, "relative_activity": 0.114067, "balance": 2.657732, "dry_up": 0.127556, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.206522, "annualized_volatility": 1.093163, "from_high_reference": -0.795556, "from_low_reference": 0.393939 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.483533, "fair_value_reference": 3.548217, "structural_low": 0.33, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.021008, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.071723, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.25, "worst_return": -0.045455, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.024476, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.009717, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.104444, "worst_return": -0.210084, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.159664, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.248931, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.104895, "worst_return": -0.331111, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-11-03", "end": "2024-01-26", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.125333, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-02-02", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.696221, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.163366, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.218289, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.331536, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.203448, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2026-05-01", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.371765, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-08", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.075, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 10.25, "volume": 47639, "typical_volume": 62283.1, "trend": 10.611667, "fair_value": 13.012115, "relative_strength": -1.847987, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -20.70781, "energy": 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0.511329, 0.497966 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.444, "volume": 1388099, "typical_volume": 13621768.45, "trend": 0.492333, "fair_value": 3.61482, "relative_strength": -49.244504, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -21.718389, "energy": 41.298249, "activity_lines": [ 0.4486, 0.477764, 0.506114, 0.494189 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.46, "volume": 1558929, "typical_volume": 13666835.0, "trend": 0.483533, "fair_value": 3.548217, "relative_strength": -46.687277, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -18.753239, "energy": 37.899336, "activity_lines": [ 0.449533, 0.469073, 0.502286, 0.492103 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }