{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2225afbf-c0b5-417d-92b8-a3278fb49e5c", "symbol": "600817", "name": "Yutong Heavy Industries Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -49.527, "architecture_energy": 48.347, "architecture_maturity": 81.643, "architecture_confidence": 64.82, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 20.73, "rotation_up": 27.58, "upward_expansion": 20.82, "deceleration": 66.56, "rotation_down": 40.7, "downward_expansion": 68.48 }, "activity_lines": [ 9.196, 9.158963, 9.576731, 10.081487 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 9.33, "trend_reference": 10.694793, "distance_from_trend": -0.127613, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 10.256989, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.090376, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -15.2072, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.245756, "excess_performance": -0.202552, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.127613, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.061835, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.090376, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.167318, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.152072, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.023664, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.245756, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.192044, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 11423825, "relative_activity": 0.657234, "balance": 0.192044, "dry_up": 0.63344, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.052282, "annualized_volatility": 0.27409, "from_high_reference": -0.279966, "from_low_reference": 0.059024 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 10.694793, "fair_value_reference": 10.256989, "structural_low": 8.81, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 24, "median_return": -0.003837, "positive_rate": 0.458333, "directional_follow_through": 0.541667, "median_excess_return": -0.008615, "regime_survival": 0.708333, "best_return": 0.359343, "worst_return": -0.209761, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.069139, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.022123, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.426807, "worst_return": -0.322841, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.099933, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.110361, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.330759, "worst_return": -0.249443, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.786839, "energy": 81.427918, "activity_lines": [ 9.110667, 9.29774, 10.057518, 10.518724 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 9.14, "volume": 10098765, "typical_volume": 18662029.8, "trend": 10.896459, "fair_value": 10.279728, "relative_strength": -14.782732, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.974644, "energy": 65.891553, "activity_lines": [ 9.121333, 9.215575, 9.912071, 10.401877 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 8.85, "volume": 12051042, "typical_volume": 18001677.4, "trend": 10.826793, "fair_value": 10.268976, "relative_strength": -17.986553, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.990123, "energy": 64.295815, "activity_lines": [ 9.042, 9.116309, 9.75491, 10.269847 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 9.34, "volume": 10467378, "typical_volume": 17659582.5, "trend": 10.762793, "fair_value": 10.26213, "relative_strength": -13.306453, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.873862, "energy": 55.051917, "activity_lines": [ 9.135333, 9.134139, 9.659845, 10.173925 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 9.33, "volume": 11423825, "typical_volume": 17381669.55, "trend": 10.694793, "fair_value": 10.256989, "relative_strength": -15.2072, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.52736, "energy": 48.346664, "activity_lines": [ 9.196, 9.158963, 9.576731, 10.081487 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }