{ "ticker": { "uuid": "222e0279-e28d-4e90-a072-0f02ab04d664", "symbol": "L1YB34", "name": "LyondellBasell Industries N.V.", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 73.923, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -17.884, "architecture_energy": 25.276, "architecture_maturity": 16.384, "architecture_confidence": 45.879, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 45.52, "rotation_up": 35.29, "upward_expansion": 25.0, "deceleration": 49.71, "rotation_down": 28.23, "downward_expansion": 38.66 }, "activity_lines": [ 154.713337, 152.622185, 161.328954, 165.040691 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 157.300003, "trend_reference": 163.659057, "distance_from_trend": -0.038855, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 180.548404, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.128765, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 3.993656, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.118976, "excess_performance": 0.176024, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.038855, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.080234, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.128765, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.163834, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.039937, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.072172, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.118976, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 22.509434, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 106, "relative_activity": 0.760129, "balance": 22.509434, "dry_up": 1.998924, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.050691, "annualized_volatility": 0.561429, "from_high_reference": -0.277318, "from_low_reference": 0.485305 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 163.659057, "fair_value_reference": 180.548404, "structural_low": 132.669998, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.026077, "positive_rate": 0.307692, "directional_follow_through": 0.307692, "median_excess_return": -0.043504, "regime_survival": 0.384615, "best_return": 0.031182, "worst_return": -0.109063, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.071714, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": -0.080126, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.066489, "worst_return": -0.171353, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.040606, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.056565, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.178557, "worst_return": -0.066852, 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"return": 0.000991, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2024-12-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.043156, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.333143, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.063619, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.042358, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-03-06", "end": "2026-05-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.055422, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", 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"deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -14.323504, "energy": 30.59675, "activity_lines": [ 164.315346, 171.986902, 176.561878, 169.0028 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 149.600006, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 118.95, "trend": 157.184003, "fair_value": 181.90762, "relative_strength": -4.790416, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "up", "direction": -21.368803, "energy": 58.270318, "activity_lines": [ 157.667336, 167.454588, 174.302979, 168.55979 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 139.809998, "volume": 41, "typical_volume": 105.95, "trend": 158.004873, "fair_value": 181.663306, "relative_strength": -10.965533, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -50.300153, "energy": 78.94327, "activity_lines": [ 150.318001, 161.428956, 171.068722, 167.438886 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 145.0, "volume": 78, "typical_volume": 109.8, "trend": 158.915637, "fair_value": 181.425427, "relative_strength": -8.74235, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -34.944405, "energy": 72.077892, "activity_lines": [ 146.844668, 156.910968, 168.371596, 166.599862 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 151.0, "volume": 2, "typical_volume": 105.75, "trend": 160.057688, "fair_value": 181.241358, "relative_strength": -1.96012, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -31.484233, "energy": 72.83452, "activity_lines": [ 147.138001, 154.20292, 166.231996, 166.089176 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 154.600006, "volume": 1004, "typical_volume": 144.95, "trend": 161.308333, "fair_value": 181.036408, "relative_strength": 0.928, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -37.779306, "energy": 61.173352, "activity_lines": [ 149.414669, 152.836369, 164.394798, 165.737067 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 155.850006, "volume": 3, "typical_volume": 135.0, "trend": 162.635516, "fair_value": 180.813157, "relative_strength": -0.132701, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -33.588097, "energy": 41.592627, "activity_lines": [ 152.03067, 152.304912, 162.773103, 165.384917 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 157.300003, "volume": 106, "typical_volume": 139.45, "trend": 163.659057, "fair_value": 180.548404, "relative_strength": 3.993656, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -17.883531, "energy": 25.27553, "activity_lines": [ 154.713337, 152.622185, 161.328954, 165.040691 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }