{ "ticker": { "uuid": "222ffda2-b22a-4461-be5c-44f4b07e1e16", "symbol": "KTEC", "name": "KRANESHARES TR KRANESHARES HANG SENG TECH INDEX ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -14.618, "architecture_energy": 17.183, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 45.286, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 51.19, "rotation_up": 38.93, "upward_expansion": 22.38, "deceleration": 41.15, "rotation_down": 18.62, "downward_expansion": 54.04 }, "activity_lines": [ 13.423333, 13.113535, 13.248716, 13.479476 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 13.78, "trend_reference": 13.97412, "distance_from_trend": -0.013891, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 13.440171, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.025285, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -19.431351, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.112685, "excess_performance": -0.23831, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.013891, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.070903, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.025285, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.045751, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.194314, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.00173, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.112685, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.836954, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 191785, "relative_activity": 0.446256, "balance": 0.836954, "dry_up": 0.611689, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.053441, "annualized_volatility": 0.237009, "from_high_reference": -0.277122, "from_low_reference": 0.167005 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 13.97412, "fair_value_reference": 13.440171, "structural_low": 11.808, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.023285, "positive_rate": 0.538462, "directional_follow_through": 0.461538, "median_excess_return": -0.037289, "regime_survival": 0.769231, "best_return": 0.1777, "worst_return": -0.108043, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.014619, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.05815, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.167915, "worst_return": -0.122955, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.018367, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.100451, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.04438, "worst_return": -0.007646, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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13.1212, 13.491867, 13.935774 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 12.4, "volume": 551129, "typical_volume": 440908.3, "trend": 14.452524, "fair_value": 13.422786, "relative_strength": -27.239567, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.643157, "energy": 77.777019, "activity_lines": [ 12.529627, 12.935862, 13.358469, 13.795042 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 13.04, "volume": 646153, "typical_volume": 465311.75, "trend": 14.354714, "fair_value": 13.427083, "relative_strength": -24.031355, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.545483, "energy": 62.384098, "activity_lines": [ 12.631387, 12.895978, 13.299309, 13.703911 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 12.99, "volume": 160181, "typical_volume": 455520.7, "trend": 14.258787, "fair_value": 13.433311, "relative_strength": -22.551576, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.394757, "energy": 47.946617, "activity_lines": [ 12.73848, 12.863367, 13.245482, 13.615865 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 12.89, "volume": 199300, "typical_volume": 441501.25, "trend": 14.154787, "fair_value": 13.428562, "relative_strength": -22.111374, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.836943, "energy": 37.102257, "activity_lines": [ 12.821573, 12.836211, 13.189036, 13.527556 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 13.69, "volume": 500262, "typical_volume": 436542.6, "trend": 14.060453, "fair_value": 13.431539, "relative_strength": -17.685751, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -27.525395, "energy": 18.267145, "activity_lines": [ 13.164, 12.9696, 13.2134, 13.49757 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 13.78, "volume": 191785, "typical_volume": 429764.45, "trend": 13.97412, "fair_value": 13.440171, "relative_strength": -19.431351, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -14.617783, "energy": 17.18263, "activity_lines": [ 13.423333, 13.113535, 13.248716, 13.479476 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }