{ "ticker": { "uuid": "223905b9-77c6-4ca2-864d-eb252274c151", "symbol": "BWXT", "name": "BWX Technologies Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 93.404, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -68.658, "architecture_energy": 75.842, "architecture_maturity": 18.018, "architecture_confidence": 86.29, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 13.7, "rotation_up": 10.04, "upward_expansion": 17.3, "deceleration": 37.19, "rotation_down": 78.28, "downward_expansion": 95.3 }, "activity_lines": [ 171.748, 179.340182, 189.675554, 194.760152 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 169.9, "trend_reference": 199.936354, "distance_from_trend": -0.15023, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 131.197922, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.29499, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -21.109385, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.136027, "excess_performance": -0.261652, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.15023, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.006793, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.29499, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.398563, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.211094, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.23383, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.136027, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.426239, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5282301, "relative_activity": 1.105822, "balance": 0.426239, "dry_up": 1.021799, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.095335, "annualized_volatility": 0.28451, "from_high_reference": -0.29645, "from_low_reference": 0.083749 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 199.936354, "fair_value_reference": 131.197922, "structural_low": 157.1, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.023521, "positive_rate": 0.7, "directional_follow_through": 0.3, "median_excess_return": 0.003793, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.136864, "worst_return": -0.134282, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.037781, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.054722, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.435334, "worst_return": -0.167353, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.251854, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.275014, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.762451, "worst_return": -0.195011, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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-17.743388, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.066999, "energy": 63.039001, "activity_lines": [ 184.953333, 189.836369, 198.321287, 200.60935 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 174.52, "volume": 3804649, "typical_volume": 4846427.7, "trend": 201.391674, "fair_value": 129.947534, "relative_strength": -15.659149, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.3765, "energy": 70.14268, "activity_lines": [ 179.69, 186.400364, 195.666813, 198.873805 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 168.7, "volume": 4737934, "typical_volume": 4821756.25, "trend": 200.969952, "fair_value": 130.567632, "relative_strength": -19.267454, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.044613, "energy": 75.126783, "activity_lines": [ 174.545333, 182.450182, 192.554124, 196.764665 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 169.9, "volume": 5282301, "typical_volume": 4776807.35, "trend": 199.936354, "fair_value": 131.197922, "relative_strength": -21.109385, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.65777, "energy": 75.841904, "activity_lines": [ 171.748, 179.340182, 189.675554, 194.760152 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }