{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2246b7b4-b599-4732-8069-55b35afe1c15", "symbol": "603128", "name": "CTS International Logistics Corporation Limited", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -39.552, "architecture_energy": 24.224, "architecture_maturity": 97.674, "architecture_confidence": 84.012, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 31.62, "rotation_up": 27.32, "upward_expansion": 15.79, "deceleration": 46.98, "rotation_down": 28.76, "downward_expansion": 63.46 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.201013, 5.143904, 5.24855, 5.374766 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 5.25, "trend_reference": 5.558069, "distance_from_trend": -0.055427, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 6.063194, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.13412, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -8.83271, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.120603, "excess_performance": -0.077399, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.055427, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.050336, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.13412, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.033585, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.088327, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.053216, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.120603, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.325627, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 50478762, "relative_activity": 1.230342, "balance": 0.325627, "dry_up": 1.201826, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 7 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.045346, "annualized_volatility": 0.188919, "from_high_reference": -0.192308, "from_low_reference": 0.097373 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.558069, "fair_value_reference": 6.063194, "structural_low": 4.784151, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 32, "median_return": -0.009137, "positive_rate": 0.4375, "directional_follow_through": 0.5625, "median_excess_return": -0.004884, "regime_survival": 0.8125, "best_return": 0.14413, "worst_return": -0.217316, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.024098, "positive_rate": 0.416667, "directional_follow_through": 0.583333, "median_excess_return": -0.060923, "regime_survival": 0.583333, "best_return": 0.420507, "worst_return": -0.22963, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.076361, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.125934, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.402118, "worst_return": -0.268016, "sufficient": true }, { 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"typical_volume": 48004670.95, "trend": 5.647316, "fair_value": 6.119328, "relative_strength": -9.042065, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.433731, "energy": 76.096885, "activity_lines": [ 5.030998, 5.124043, 5.303605, 5.451359 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.0526, "volume": 46709059, "typical_volume": 42578513.3, "trend": 5.616069, "fair_value": 6.100445, "relative_strength": -10.404162, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.944634, "energy": 55.464123, "activity_lines": [ 5.037899, 5.092889, 5.265427, 5.41299 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.36, "volume": 57661804, "typical_volume": 41773033.0, "trend": 5.586403, "fair_value": 6.082491, "relative_strength": -4.859256, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.718335, "energy": 36.508326, "activity_lines": [ 5.154428, 5.127578, 5.260846, 5.39647 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.25, "volume": 50478762, "typical_volume": 41028235.85, "trend": 5.558069, "fair_value": 6.063194, "relative_strength": -8.83271, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -39.552469, "energy": 24.223816, "activity_lines": [ 5.201013, 5.143904, 5.24855, 5.374766 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }