{ "ticker": { "uuid": "22480992-f740-410c-a8e9-11cc741a7ed2", "symbol": "MBAX", "name": "Multibax Public Company Limited", "exchange": "SET", "country": "TH", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SET.BK", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 76.64, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 60.361, "architecture_energy": 59.274, "architecture_maturity": 28.952, "architecture_confidence": 91.275, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 14.88, "rotation_up": 63.71, "upward_expansion": 85.0, "deceleration": 48.4, "rotation_down": 14.87, "downward_expansion": 11.67 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.002, 1.971091, 1.914095, 1.878822 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 2.0, "trend_reference": 1.798717, "distance_from_trend": 0.111904, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 2.193298, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.088131, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 8.828115, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.54339, "excess_performance": 0.351065, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.111904, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.12081, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.088131, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.177206, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.088281, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.064092, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.54339, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 13.371578, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 612000, "relative_activity": 0.537295, "balance": 13.371578, "dry_up": 1.116137, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.056923, "annualized_volatility": 0.741839, "from_high_reference": -0.230769, "from_low_reference": 0.602297 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.798717, "fair_value_reference": 2.193298, "structural_low": 1.248208, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.005317, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.01849, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.20625, "worst_return": -0.192689, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.091775, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.106434, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.010635, "worst_return": -0.092959, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.036214, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.049938, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.116288, "worst_return": -0.04386, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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1.755585, "fair_value": 2.215665, "relative_strength": 8.606617, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.195108, "energy": 55.998575, "activity_lines": [ 1.978, 1.944, 1.889429, 1.848676 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.0, "volume": 710800, "typical_volume": 1771160.0, "trend": 1.777151, "fair_value": 2.204299, "relative_strength": 8.46653, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.773704, "energy": 58.980035, "activity_lines": [ 1.993333, 1.959091, 1.902714, 1.864445 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.0, "volume": 612000, "typical_volume": 1139040.0, "trend": 1.798717, "fair_value": 2.193298, "relative_strength": 8.828115, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.360781, "energy": 59.27367, "activity_lines": [ 2.002, 1.971091, 1.914095, 1.878822 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }