{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2248d139-56ba-42f9-aaea-11c7109a68af", "symbol": "PEB", "name": "Pacific Edge Limited", "exchange": "NZE", "country": "NZ", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NZ50", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 31.605, "architecture_energy": 22.994, "architecture_maturity": 71.395, "architecture_confidence": 95.362, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 47.28, "rotation_up": 19.89, "upward_expansion": 53.42, "deceleration": 93.95, "rotation_down": 31.35, "downward_expansion": 19.42 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.266667, 0.277364, 0.26721, 0.250105 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 0.26, "trend_reference": 0.2301, "distance_from_trend": 0.129944, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.138096, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.882746, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 23.123022, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.397849, "excess_performance": 0.369576, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.129944, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.202823, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.882746, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.56763, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.23123, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.123866, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.397849, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.616978, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5781613, "relative_activity": 1.729505, "balance": 1.616978, "dry_up": 1.121467, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.12929, "annualized_volatility": 0.742552, "from_high_reference": -0.235294, "from_low_reference": 1.6 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.2301, "fair_value_reference": 0.138096, "structural_low": 0.167, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.131034, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": -0.059718, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.139394, "worst_return": -0.491525, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.234483, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.173674, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.285714, "worst_return": -0.55, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.393103, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.281037, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.542857, "worst_return": -0.414286, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 48.28116, "energy": 43.001194, "activity_lines": [ 0.285667, 0.289727, 0.259648, 0.24226 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.265, "volume": 2599701, "typical_volume": 3007721.6, "trend": 0.224567, "fair_value": 0.136417, "relative_strength": 29.593165, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 41.690815, "energy": 30.195919, "activity_lines": [ 0.276667, 0.285545, 0.262476, 0.245071 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.27, "volume": 2526677, "typical_volume": 3115926.4, "trend": 0.2274, "fair_value": 0.137301, "relative_strength": 30.787344, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 36.072077, "energy": 23.498589, "activity_lines": [ 0.272333, 0.282364, 0.265495, 0.248002 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.26, "volume": 5781613, "typical_volume": 3342929.25, "trend": 0.2301, "fair_value": 0.138096, "relative_strength": 23.123022, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 31.604545, "energy": 22.993529, "activity_lines": [ 0.266667, 0.277364, 0.26721, 0.250105 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }