{ "ticker": { "uuid": "224aecab-1865-4ce7-9dea-760a9ae808a6", "symbol": "LUXU", "name": "Amundi Index Solutions - Amundi Global Luxury UCITS ETF USD Acc", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 48.081, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 37.533, "architecture_energy": 20.454, "architecture_maturity": 24.147, "architecture_confidence": 48.27, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 51.05, "rotation_up": 39.03, "upward_expansion": 38.54, "deceleration": 44.9, "rotation_down": 30.67, "downward_expansion": 15.2 }, "activity_lines": [ 238.710671, 238.391687, 236.510837, 235.915931 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 244.600006, "trend_reference": 237.48326, "distance_from_trend": 0.029967, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 225.955995, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.082512, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -5.227064, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.024271, "excess_performance": -0.077582, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.029967, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.016691, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.082512, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.045916, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.052271, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.01656, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.024271, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.425111, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 259, "relative_activity": 0.571933, "balance": 0.425111, "dry_up": 2.363365, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.026299, "annualized_volatility": 0.227307, "from_high_reference": -0.058844, "from_low_reference": 0.142338 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 237.48326, "fair_value_reference": 225.955995, "structural_low": 214.122192, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.024186, "positive_rate": 0.7, "directional_follow_through": 0.7, "median_excess_return": 0.014758, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.088371, "worst_return": -0.098382, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.041719, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.01318, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.133659, "worst_return": -0.023138, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.012616, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.04086, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.121453, "worst_return": -0.085319, "sufficient": false }, { 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"regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.137613, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.058183, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.036486, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.004803, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.018398, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.02541, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-03-06", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.073398, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-06-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.071869, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-06-12", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.034351, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 220.845993, "volume": 214, "typical_volume": 568.55, "trend": 228.076952, "fair_value": 214.400838, "relative_strength": 0.726683, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", 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225.931118, "relative_strength": -4.627014, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -4.990697, "energy": 23.091767, "activity_lines": [ 238.689782, 237.283295, 234.577877, 236.188394 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 237.660004, "volume": 18, "typical_volume": 354.95, "trend": 239.338253, "fair_value": 225.924361, "relative_strength": -4.166854, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -7.410884, "energy": 10.809298, "activity_lines": [ 238.280669, 237.680683, 234.989139, 236.040186 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 231.75, "volume": 3124, "typical_volume": 427.85, "trend": 238.537976, "fair_value": 225.859661, "relative_strength": -6.726478, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -34.784109, "energy": 17.563888, "activity_lines": [ 235.822669, 236.936225, 234.913965, 235.550621 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 237.570007, "volume": 880, "typical_volume": 457.7, "trend": 237.969727, "fair_value": 225.868848, "relative_strength": -5.818561, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -22.58513, "energy": 13.412534, "activity_lines": [ 236.020003, 237.111753, 235.402632, 235.488171 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 244.600006, "volume": 259, "typical_volume": 452.85, "trend": 237.48326, "fair_value": 225.955995, "relative_strength": -5.227064, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 37.532717, "energy": 20.453747, "activity_lines": [ 238.710671, 238.391687, 236.510837, 235.915931 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }