{ "ticker": { "uuid": "224f9c93-9a56-4f9c-8cc0-6df7a0ea08d8", "symbol": "VNGA60", "name": "Vanguard LifeStrategy 60% Equity UCITS ETF (EUR) Accumulating", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 56.359, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 65.021, "architecture_energy": 44.308, "architecture_maturity": 59.954, "architecture_confidence": 69.592, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 22.3, "rotation_up": 43.37, "upward_expansion": 68.06, "deceleration": 85.41, "rotation_down": 27.4, "downward_expansion": 18.06 }, "activity_lines": [ 36.839333, 36.855181, 36.572547, 36.112742 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 37.294998, "trend_reference": 35.5735, "distance_from_trend": 0.048393, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 31.535353, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.182641, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -7.948082, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.080075, "excess_performance": -0.090816, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.048393, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.027023, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.182641, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.009108, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.079481, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.023119, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.080075, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.290115, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 138043, "relative_activity": 1.270322, "balance": 2.290115, "dry_up": 1.253205, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.014366, "annualized_volatility": 0.075917, "from_high_reference": -0.005201, "from_low_reference": 0.149307 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 35.5735, "fair_value_reference": 31.535353, "structural_low": 33.259998, "invalidation": "A 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0.05683, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.082901, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.05683, "worst_return": 0.05683, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-05-24", "end": "2024-08-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.006237, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-08-16", "end": "2024-08-30", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.00889, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-09-06", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.059371, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.015898, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.05026, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.007325, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.016045, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.059332, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.013321, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.019489, "active": false }, { 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35.235, "fair_value": 31.277789, "relative_strength": -7.549119, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.835671, "energy": 76.589421, "activity_lines": [ 36.983666, 36.819727, 36.184143, 35.749839 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 36.68, "volume": 116168, "typical_volume": 104762.65, "trend": 35.324, "fair_value": 31.341314, "relative_strength": -6.922671, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.993963, "energy": 60.797461, "activity_lines": [ 36.891666, 36.827455, 36.285857, 35.843064 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 36.695, "volume": 168382, "typical_volume": 106451.3, "trend": 35.410833, "fair_value": 31.40359, "relative_strength": -6.544673, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 51.870466, "energy": 50.555506, "activity_lines": [ 36.816667, 36.825727, 36.381, 35.931516 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 36.41, "volume": 122139, "typical_volume": 106543.15, "trend": 35.485167, "fair_value": 31.46625, "relative_strength": -7.676283, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 45.448908, "energy": 37.232456, "activity_lines": [ 36.666667, 36.761455, 36.439595, 35.995978 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 37.294998, "volume": 138043, "typical_volume": 108667.75, "trend": 35.5735, "fair_value": 31.535353, "relative_strength": -7.948082, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.021055, "energy": 44.307733, "activity_lines": [ 36.839333, 36.855181, 36.572547, 36.112742 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }