{ "ticker": { "uuid": "226152f6-5bcf-4a17-8db0-5e86cab26de1", "symbol": "ELVA", "name": "Electrovaya Inc.", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -6.935, "architecture_energy": 12.618, "architecture_maturity": 33.279, "architecture_confidence": 54.284, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 55.52, "rotation_up": 20.05, "upward_expansion": 16.31, "deceleration": 62.3, "rotation_down": 47.79, "downward_expansion": 38.98 }, "activity_lines": [ 12.551333, 12.925091, 13.346619, 12.998129 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 13.58, "trend_reference": 12.723333, "distance_from_trend": 0.06733, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 6.317821, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.149475, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 11.313071, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.126971, "excess_performance": 0.00655, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.06733, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.136892, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.149475, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.412092, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.113131, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.374284, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.126971, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.05323, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 688700, "relative_activity": 1.172036, "balance": 1.05323, "dry_up": 2.074633, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.16155, "annualized_volatility": 0.628198, "from_high_reference": -0.201646, "from_low_reference": 1.341379 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 12.723333, "fair_value_reference": 6.317821, "structural_low": 9.72, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.094242, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.089907, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.363636, "worst_return": -0.179104, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.353318, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.260875, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.580451, "worst_return": -0.284553, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.05102, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.071944, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.983459, "worst_return": -0.355691, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 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"label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2024-11-29", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.109422, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-12-06", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.057441, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.168367, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.351613, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.782506, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "Developing", 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"Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 20.141429, "energy": 12.867576, "activity_lines": [ 13.429333, 13.881818, 13.482048, 13.01572 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 13.29, "volume": 2208800, "typical_volume": 540915.0, "trend": 12.63, "fair_value": 6.182692, "relative_strength": 14.530309, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 27.229814, "energy": 16.35601, "activity_lines": [ 13.326, 13.733273, 13.533048, 13.066688 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 11.78, "volume": 1043200, "typical_volume": 559625.0, "trend": 12.662, "fair_value": 6.223462, "relative_strength": 0.574748, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 0.857461, "energy": 10.895121, "activity_lines": [ 12.721333, 13.330909, 13.425857, 13.011849 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 11.55, "volume": 935600, "typical_volume": 575250.0, "trend": 12.680667, "fair_value": 6.262244, "relative_strength": -1.446029, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -21.645221, "energy": 23.546159, "activity_lines": [ 12.220667, 12.912364, 13.291143, 12.940107 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 13.58, "volume": 688700, "typical_volume": 587610.0, "trend": 12.723333, "fair_value": 6.317821, "relative_strength": 11.313071, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -6.934566, "energy": 12.617896, "activity_lines": [ 12.551333, 12.925091, 13.346619, 12.998129 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }