{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2267fd78-d0c3-4f92-9fe9-4762f8272966", "symbol": "IVX", "name": "Invion Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -56.748, "architecture_energy": 51.235, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 71.384, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 15.16, "rotation_up": 27.71, "upward_expansion": 20.81, "deceleration": 66.94, "rotation_down": 47.92, "downward_expansion": 73.14 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.039467, 0.039127, 0.044043, 0.051052 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.038, "trend_reference": 0.0613, "distance_from_trend": -0.380098, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.252071, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.849249, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -53.218251, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.552941, "excess_performance": -0.616647, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.380098, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.200782, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.849249, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.042909, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.532183, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.153578, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.552941, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.225714, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 208651, "relative_activity": 0.374388, "balance": 0.225714, "dry_up": 0.532931, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.165992, "annualized_volatility": 0.662824, "from_high_reference": -0.81, "from_low_reference": 0.1875 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.0613, "fair_value_reference": 0.252071, "structural_low": 0.032, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 37, "median_return": -0.066667, "positive_rate": 0.297297, "directional_follow_through": 0.594595, "median_excess_return": -0.073746, "regime_survival": 0.891892, "best_return": 1.0, "worst_return": -0.5, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.138095, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.143849, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.166667, "worst_return": -0.402439, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.3, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.254233, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": -0.10989, "worst_return": -0.393333, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.598601, "energy": 81.394359, "activity_lines": [ 0.036133, 0.039564, 0.047757, 0.05566 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.045, "volume": 518186, "typical_volume": 540636.3, "trend": 0.0649, "fair_value": 0.259263, "relative_strength": -43.199281, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.719055, "energy": 64.925683, "activity_lines": [ 0.038667, 0.039945, 0.046733, 0.05428 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.04, "volume": 347300, "typical_volume": 555563.45, "trend": 0.063133, "fair_value": 0.255032, "relative_strength": -49.917002, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.83151, "energy": 57.085743, "activity_lines": [ 0.0394, 0.039636, 0.04539, 0.052673 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.038, "volume": 208651, "typical_volume": 557312.05, "trend": 0.0613, "fair_value": 0.252071, "relative_strength": -53.218251, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.748123, "energy": 51.235418, "activity_lines": [ 0.039467, 0.039127, 0.044043, 0.051052 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }