{ "ticker": { "uuid": "226a1d08-eaef-4e54-89b2-5f41a80b3523", "symbol": "NEX", "name": "Nex Point Public Company Limited", "exchange": "SET", "country": "TH", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SET.BK", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -47.891, "architecture_energy": 20.79, "architecture_maturity": 60.571, "architecture_confidence": 92.201, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 39.47, "rotation_up": 24.55, "upward_expansion": 8.33, "deceleration": 36.23, "rotation_down": 41.5, "downward_expansion": 70.33 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.019333, 1.019455, 1.027714, 1.037527 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 1.01, "trend_reference": 1.063667, "distance_from_trend": -0.050454, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.405577, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.703428, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -19.14791, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.09009, "excess_performance": -0.282415, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.050454, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.029796, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.703428, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.058789, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.191479, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.045114, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.09009, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.097815, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 32005500, "relative_activity": 0.393017, "balance": 1.097815, "dry_up": 1.14357, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.065499, "annualized_volatility": 0.479431, "from_high_reference": -0.344156, "from_low_reference": 0.311688 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.063667, "fair_value_reference": 3.405577, "structural_low": 0.92, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 33, "median_return": -0.009804, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.515152, "median_excess_return": -0.01631, "regime_survival": 0.878788, "best_return": 0.474576, "worst_return": -0.611538, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.058252, "positive_rate": 0.272727, "directional_follow_through": 0.727273, "median_excess_return": -0.048914, "regime_survival": 0.818182, "best_return": 0.28169, "worst_return": -0.704082, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.113537, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.042266, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.163399, "worst_return": -0.910309, "sufficient": true }, 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"balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.236842, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.173077, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.101266, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.181818, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.088496, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": 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contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -34.229896, "energy": 25.142377, "activity_lines": [ 1.024667, 1.033636, 1.031381, 1.049527 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.01, "volume": 78940000, "typical_volume": 91265455.0, "trend": 1.075, "fair_value": 3.522692, "relative_strength": -20.887369, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.720325, "energy": 24.862457, "activity_lines": [ 1.022, 1.028, 1.029905, 1.04486 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.02, "volume": 20501200, "typical_volume": 85332685.0, "trend": 1.068667, "fair_value": 3.465128, "relative_strength": -19.01208, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.507099, "energy": 20.621216, "activity_lines": [ 1.023333, 1.023818, 1.029333, 1.041312 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.01, "volume": 32005500, "typical_volume": 81435340.0, "trend": 1.063667, "fair_value": 3.405577, "relative_strength": -19.14791, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.890617, "energy": 20.7899, "activity_lines": [ 1.019333, 1.019455, 1.027714, 1.037527 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }