{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "226b4e39-9a7e-4a03-bef9-7dde8ec9805b",
    "symbol": "XDPE",
    "name": "Xtrackers S&P 500 UCITS ETF 1C - EUR Hedged",
    "exchange": "MIL",
    "country": "IT",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI",
    "stage": 2,
    "stage_name": "Advancing",
    "phase": "2b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing",
    "transition": "stage_2_healthy",
    "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact",
    "confidence": 60.84,
    "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion",
    "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 83.827,
    "architecture_energy": 58.764,
    "architecture_maturity": 61.186,
    "architecture_confidence": 56.947,
    "architecture_tenure": "Established",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 32.39,
        "rotation_up": 52.39,
        "upward_expansion": 79.79,
        "deceleration": 68.81,
        "rotation_down": 27.55,
        "downward_expansion": 8.79
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        105.308,
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        103.950904,
        102.064838
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      "activity_state": "Moderate",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": 0.5
    },
    "latest_close": 108.07,
    "trend_reference": 99.976999,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.080949,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 83.865384,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.288613,
    "fair_value_direction": "Improving",
    "relative_strength": -5.002949,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": 0.115965,
    "excess_performance": -0.054927,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.080949,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.030146,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.288613,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.006021,
        "read": "Closing upward"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.050029,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.023413,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.115965,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": false,
        "value": 0.69937,
        "read": "Supply-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 12712,
      "relative_activity": 1.61196,
      "balance": 0.69937,
      "dry_up": 2.508734,
      "accumulation_observations": 2,
      "distribution_observations": 2
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.018628,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.13256,
      "from_high_reference": -0.003688,
      "from_low_reference": 0.21019
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 99.976999,
      "fair_value_reference": 83.865384,
      "structural_low": 89.300003,
      "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 38,
        "median_return": 0.010452,
        "positive_rate": 0.710526,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.710526,
        "median_excess_return": 0.002568,
        "regime_survival": 0.789474,
        "best_return": 0.061909,
        "worst_return": -0.092779,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 13,
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        "positive_rate": 0.769231,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.769231,
        "median_excess_return": -0.020873,
        "regime_survival": 0.615385,
        "best_return": 0.098528,
        "worst_return": -0.073165,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 8,
        "median_return": 0.069111,
        "positive_rate": 0.75,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.75,
        "median_excess_return": 0.004294,
        "regime_survival": 0.625,
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        "worst_return": -0.168102,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 4,
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        "positive_rate": 0.75,
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        "median_excess_return": -0.01693,
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        "best_return": 0.196554,
        "worst_return": -0.108187,
        "sufficient": false
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        "active": false
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      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
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        "tenure": "New",
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        "active": false
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      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
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        "active": false
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        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
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        "end": "2025-03-14",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.012093,
        "active": false
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        "regime": "rotation_down",
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        "active": false
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      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
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        "active": false
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-01",
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        "typical_volume": 10045.65,
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        "fair_value": 80.158846,
        "relative_strength": -3.462595,
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
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        "fair_value": 80.438718,
        "relative_strength": -2.661644,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
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        "direction": 86.340271,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-15",
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        "typical_volume": 9678.95,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
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        "typical_volume": 8039.0,
        "trend": 96.736333,
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        "relative_strength": -1.785062,
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      },
      {
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        "typical_volume": 7369.9,
        "trend": 97.051333,
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        "relative_strength": -1.684452,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
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        "fair_value": 81.560192,
        "relative_strength": -2.630977,
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      },
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        "date": "2026-06-12",
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        "typical_volume": 6758.95,
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        "stage": 2,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-19",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
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        "typical_volume": 6194.25,
        "trend": 98.320333,
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        "relative_strength": -6.357341,
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        "modifier": "Early expansion",
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        "energy": 54.315587,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
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        "typical_volume": 5991.3,
        "trend": 98.585333,
        "fair_value": 82.591859,
        "relative_strength": -7.312252,
        "stage": 2,
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        "modifier": "Established expansion",
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
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        "typical_volume": 5568.5,
        "trend": 98.897333,
        "fair_value": 82.85141,
        "relative_strength": -6.11541,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 72.301801,
        "energy": 58.802531,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
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        "volume": 48452,
        "typical_volume": 7419.0,
        "trend": 99.168666,
        "fair_value": 83.098718,
        "relative_strength": -5.629565,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 60.830496,
        "energy": 55.227845,
        "activity_lines": [
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          100.957913
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 103.720001,
        "volume": 3276,
        "typical_volume": 7002.9,
        "trend": 99.391333,
        "fair_value": 83.33923,
        "relative_strength": -5.780529,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 51.292933,
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        "activity_lines": [
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          101.251548
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 103.559998,
        "volume": 14696,
        "typical_volume": 7513.2,
        "trend": 99.632666,
        "fair_value": 83.584487,
        "relative_strength": -6.403229,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 46.820572,
        "energy": 40.484006,
        "activity_lines": [
          104.053333,
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          103.294809,
          101.520494
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 108.07,
        "volume": 12712,
        "typical_volume": 7886.05,
        "trend": 99.976999,
        "fair_value": 83.865384,
        "relative_strength": -5.002949,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 83.826983,
        "energy": 58.76373,
        "activity_lines": [
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          102.064838
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      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}