{ "ticker": { "uuid": "22762877-684a-48f8-a8a2-2f281507c40b", "symbol": "000927", "name": "China Railway Materials Company Limited", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -44.676, "architecture_energy": 35.207, "architecture_maturity": 74.931, "architecture_confidence": 88.336, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 25.8, "rotation_up": 27.68, "upward_expansion": 18.83, "deceleration": 46.82, "rotation_down": 32.93, "downward_expansion": 66.49 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.448667, 2.420674, 2.51552, 2.61814 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 2.44, "trend_reference": 2.716386, "distance_from_trend": -0.101748, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.620801, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.068987, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -12.973447, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.161512, "excess_performance": -0.168912, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.101748, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.029103, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.068987, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.135369, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.129734, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.031697, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.161512, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.637878, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 218346261, "relative_activity": 0.553708, "balance": 0.637878, "dry_up": 0.620291, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.053022, "annualized_volatility": 0.297676, "from_high_reference": -0.28863, "from_low_reference": 0.070175 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.716386, "fair_value_reference": 2.620801, "structural_low": 2.28, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 27, "median_return": 0.00722, "positive_rate": 0.518519, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": 0.014722, "regime_survival": 0.777778, "best_return": 0.203464, "worst_return": -0.190883, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.020281, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.056765, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.252174, "worst_return": -0.078616, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.04797, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": 0.006688, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.175377, "worst_return": -0.147799, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.787494, "energy": 84.708031, "activity_lines": [ 2.3718, 2.419703, 2.582781, 2.66972 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.42, "volume": 257259241, "typical_volume": 425169469.15, "trend": 2.72572, "fair_value": 2.624325, "relative_strength": -11.482356, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.478519, "energy": 68.618243, "activity_lines": [ 2.39, 2.408896, 2.553964, 2.649609 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.52, "volume": 230339516, "typical_volume": 409670039.05, "trend": 2.722053, "fair_value": 2.622914, "relative_strength": -5.943055, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.394679, "energy": 44.196613, "activity_lines": [ 2.44, 2.421032, 2.537242, 2.636337 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.44, "volume": 218346261, "typical_volume": 394334467.2, "trend": 2.716386, "fair_value": 2.620801, "relative_strength": -12.973447, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.676364, "energy": 35.207346, "activity_lines": [ 2.448667, 2.420674, 2.51552, 2.61814 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }