{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2276c57d-3717-4821-8940-0b1a1f2a2b8d", "symbol": "LEI", "name": "Leifheit Aktiengesellschaft", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 93.544, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Structural failure", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -79.63, "architecture_energy": 91.781, "architecture_maturity": 16.936, "architecture_confidence": 80.592, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 10.95, "rotation_up": 8.05, "upward_expansion": 21.95, "deceleration": 37.01, "rotation_down": 86.27, "downward_expansion": 99.95 }, "activity_lines": [ 13.156667, 13.671818, 14.412451, 14.505352 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 12.9, "trend_reference": 14.522174, "distance_from_trend": -0.111703, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 14.516202, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.111338, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -16.789015, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.096776, "excess_performance": -0.161416, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.111703, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.003081, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.111338, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.199772, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.16789, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.231347, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.096776, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.565645, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 23670, "relative_activity": 0.90606, "balance": 0.565645, "dry_up": 1.119876, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.046042, "annualized_volatility": 0.204813, "from_high_reference": -0.210001, "from_low_reference": 0.007812 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 14.522174, "fair_value_reference": 14.516202, "structural_low": 12.8, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.012966, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.009524, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.028572, "worst_return": -0.038806, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.044006, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.11907, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.034921, "worst_return": -0.131936, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.015648, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.12233, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.333333, "worst_return": -0.324291, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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"Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.026866, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.002763, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.135627, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.033742, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.006452, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "Established", 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"typical_volume": 26371.65, "trend": 14.608058, "fair_value": 14.564967, "relative_strength": -10.501718, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -53.686651, "energy": 70.677149, "activity_lines": [ 14.07, 14.560972, 14.913563, 14.799375 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 13.1, "volume": 20083, "typical_volume": 25804.15, "trend": 14.58571, "fair_value": 14.548749, "relative_strength": -11.918379, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -50.767982, "energy": 75.516999, "activity_lines": [ 13.666667, 14.222411, 14.746223, 14.702081 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 13.2, "volume": 30879, "typical_volume": 26385.7, "trend": 14.563594, "fair_value": 14.534763, "relative_strength": -12.842621, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -50.738557, "energy": 79.588276, "activity_lines": [ 13.416667, 13.950593, 14.591822, 14.612681 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 12.9, "volume": 23670, "typical_volume": 26124.1, "trend": 14.522174, "fair_value": 14.516202, "relative_strength": -16.789015, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.630379, "energy": 91.78104, "activity_lines": [ 13.156667, 13.671818, 14.412451, 14.505352 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }