{ "ticker": { "uuid": "227941a2-daa6-48c0-8b06-7f85e38466cd", "symbol": "688093", "name": "Suzhou Shihua New Material Technology Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -60.017, "architecture_energy": 69.814, "architecture_maturity": 52.325, "architecture_confidence": 85.882, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 18.35, "rotation_up": 11.75, "upward_expansion": 17.96, "deceleration": 34.38, "rotation_down": 71.67, "downward_expansion": 88.96 }, "activity_lines": [ 26.696, 28.474364, 29.798313, 30.764231 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 27.42, "trend_reference": 32.413945, "distance_from_trend": -0.154068, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 23.904806, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.14705, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -19.622074, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.283886, "excess_performance": -0.240682, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.154068, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.059472, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.14705, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.260887, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.196221, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.070138, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.283886, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.575315, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 10335448, "relative_activity": 0.741824, "balance": 0.575315, "dry_up": 1.006136, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.132287, "annualized_volatility": 0.548297, "from_high_reference": -0.384646, "from_low_reference": 0.136345 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 32.413945, "fair_value_reference": 23.904806, "structural_low": 24.129999, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.019831, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.000448, "regime_survival": 0.733333, "best_return": 0.154236, "worst_return": -0.11004, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.010178, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.024308, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.336067, "worst_return": -0.212138, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.058679, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.055273, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.475465, "worst_return": 0.052636, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"relative_strength": -26.375599, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.263635, "energy": 63.412999, "activity_lines": [ 28.496, 29.642539, 30.611949, 31.560186 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 26.040001, "volume": 12720656, "typical_volume": 13886990.7, "trend": 32.717783, "fair_value": 23.847227, "relative_strength": -21.873596, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.339825, "energy": 71.625032, "activity_lines": [ 27.023334, 28.874, 30.121321, 31.106023 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 27.42, "volume": 10335448, "typical_volume": 13932475.55, "trend": 32.413945, "fair_value": 23.904806, "relative_strength": -19.622074, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.016554, "energy": 69.81446, "activity_lines": [ 26.696, 28.474364, 29.798313, 30.764231 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }