{ "ticker": { "uuid": "22809fca-6965-43c4-8181-45b39d8282d3", "symbol": "PRINC", "name": "Principal Capital Public Company Limited", "exchange": "SET", "country": "TH", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SET.BK", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 83.294, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -12.561, "architecture_energy": 12.868, "architecture_maturity": 52.78, "architecture_confidence": 57.765, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 58.77, "rotation_up": 36.03, "upward_expansion": 29.56, "deceleration": 39.37, "rotation_down": 22.35, "downward_expansion": 46.89 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.735333, 1.728182, 1.725714, 1.738019 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 1.73, "trend_reference": 1.747398, "distance_from_trend": -0.009957, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.849764, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.392932, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -17.740833, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.036872, "excess_performance": -0.155453, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.009957, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.002665, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.392932, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.040264, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.177408, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.029102, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.036872, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.269586, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2396100, "relative_activity": 2.45536, "balance": 1.269586, "dry_up": 1.92168, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.0249, "annualized_volatility": 0.231099, "from_high_reference": -0.303222, "from_low_reference": 0.049364 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.747398, "fair_value_reference": 2.849764, "structural_low": 1.66848, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": -0.012359, "positive_rate": 0.227273, "directional_follow_through": 0.227273, "median_excess_return": -0.025505, "regime_survival": 0.681818, "best_return": 0.415525, "worst_return": -0.116279, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.137339, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.127108, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.451271, "worst_return": -0.256693, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.185479, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": -0.195155, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.48913, "worst_return": 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"activity_lines": [ 1.714, 1.713818, 1.726915, 1.739506 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.74, "volume": 3417600, "typical_volume": 997850.0, "trend": 1.742235, "fair_value": 2.898549, "relative_strength": -20.513779, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -32.138114, "energy": 14.95441, "activity_lines": [ 1.724, 1.718182, 1.726132, 1.739473 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.74, "volume": 1317200, "typical_volume": 956900.0, "trend": 1.744288, "fair_value": 2.882055, "relative_strength": -20.098287, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -26.659793, "energy": 14.448979, "activity_lines": [ 1.730667, 1.722545, 1.726143, 1.739329 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.74, "volume": 370300, "typical_volume": 897795.0, "trend": 1.746009, "fair_value": 2.865942, "relative_strength": -18.543967, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -12.902892, "energy": 12.523391, "activity_lines": [ 1.735333, 1.726727, 1.726381, 1.739052 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.73, "volume": 2396100, "typical_volume": 975865.0, "trend": 1.747398, "fair_value": 2.849764, "relative_strength": -17.740833, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -12.56074, "energy": 12.86787, "activity_lines": [ 1.735333, 1.728182, 1.725714, 1.738019 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }