{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2280dcbf-b291-4e50-9d27-c721811a5a72", "symbol": "AIL", "name": "L'Air Liquide S.A.", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 58.283, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 16.114, "architecture_energy": 7.938, "architecture_maturity": 7.294, "architecture_confidence": 48.664, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 50.52, "rotation_up": 39.36, "upward_expansion": 52.85, "deceleration": 49.18, "rotation_down": 21.66, "downward_expansion": 26.18 }, "activity_lines": [ 173.496001, 173.513256, 174.118894, 173.620848 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 172.380005, "trend_reference": 171.413764, "distance_from_trend": 0.005637, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 162.424042, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.061296, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -5.871047, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.045893, "excess_performance": -0.018747, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.005637, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.02456, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.061296, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.014785, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.05871, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.059189, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.045893, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.801485, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 6397, "relative_activity": 1.432795, "balance": 1.801485, "dry_up": 0.983661, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.038195, "annualized_volatility": 0.237286, "from_high_reference": -0.073931, "from_low_reference": 0.133748 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 171.413764, "fair_value_reference": 162.424042, "structural_low": 159.833026, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.002119, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.015616, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.060784, "worst_return": -0.040092, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.046428, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.064808, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.128875, "worst_return": -0.09362, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.047857, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.078649, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.105882, "worst_return": -0.041184, "sufficient": 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174.419998, "volume": 2698, "typical_volume": 5097.55, "trend": 169.034202, "fair_value": 161.533352, "relative_strength": -0.193623, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 27.632498, "energy": 14.326534, "activity_lines": [ 173.869333, 172.892023, 174.205072, 172.569085 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 176.419998, "volume": 3454, "typical_volume": 4914.1, "trend": 169.700889, "fair_value": 161.773695, "relative_strength": 1.865699, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.348875, "energy": 28.131136, "activity_lines": [ 175.345332, 173.529322, 174.450617, 173.045588 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 176.559998, "volume": 2000, "typical_volume": 4408.65, "trend": 170.361126, "fair_value": 161.997773, "relative_strength": 0.836158, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Re-acceleration watch", "gate": "up", "direction": 40.930589, "energy": 30.92278, "activity_lines": [ 176.327998, 174.105586, 174.697401, 173.488112 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 170.9, "volume": 5716, "typical_volume": 4361.45, "trend": 170.86147, "fair_value": 162.212918, "relative_strength": -4.298843, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Re-acceleration watch", "gate": "up", "direction": 24.649454, "energy": 15.158635, "activity_lines": [ 174.607999, 173.588694, 174.345477, 173.522878 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 172.380005, "volume": 6397, "typical_volume": 4464.7, "trend": 171.413764, "fair_value": 162.424042, "relative_strength": -5.871047, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 16.113932, "energy": 7.938221, "activity_lines": [ 173.496001, 173.513256, 174.118894, 173.620848 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }