{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2288ac19-0e15-42e0-a3aa-e4769665b38b", "symbol": "BALM3", "name": "Baumer S.A.", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 81.745, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Momentum cooling", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 57.206, "architecture_energy": 84.407, "architecture_maturity": 30.491, "architecture_confidence": 91.474, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 28.17, "rotation_up": 45.37, "upward_expansion": 75.5, "deceleration": 50.0, "rotation_down": 29.87, "downward_expansion": 22.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 26.0, 26.0, 25.785238, 25.631239 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 26.0, "trend_reference": 25.524354, "distance_from_trend": 0.018635, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 14.286822, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.819859, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 10.119609, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.032566, "excess_performance": 0.089614, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.018635, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.057135, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.819859, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.155791, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.101196, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.038339, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.032566, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": null, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 100, "relative_activity": 1.333333, "balance": null, "dry_up": 2.333333, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.002426, "annualized_volatility": 0.044441, "from_high_reference": -0.10511, "from_low_reference": 0.603137 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 25.524354, "fair_value_reference": 14.286822, "structural_low": 25.18, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.015, "positive_rate": 0.538462, "directional_follow_through": 0.538462, "median_excess_return": 0.075131, "regime_survival": 0.384615, "best_return": 0.477131, "worst_return": -0.125, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.060479, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": 0.062263, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.371622, "worst_return": -0.034146, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.31603, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.219732, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.492862, "worst_return": 0.254718, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.600186, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.471023, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.859862, "worst_return": 0.34051, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-07-05", "end": "2024-07-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.025431, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-07-26", "end": "2024-11-01", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.072, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-08", "end": "2025-01-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.026834, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.66416, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.004808, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.083184, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.477131, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.071429, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-01", "end": "2026-05-15", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": 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"modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 92.195666, "energy": 76.046024, "activity_lines": [ 25.453333, 25.329091, 25.251408, 25.180596 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-12", "close": 26.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 125.0, "trend": 24.654321, "fair_value": 13.325104, "relative_strength": 14.450528, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Re-acceleration watch", "gate": "up", "direction": 93.738308, "energy": 77.715584, "activity_lines": [ 25.672, 25.463273, 25.324676, 25.283848 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "close": 26.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 95.0, "trend": 24.90906, "fair_value": 13.438935, "relative_strength": 15.574685, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 89.795657, "energy": 82.736852, "activity_lines": [ 25.836, 25.582545, 25.402571, 25.370666 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 26.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 80.0, "trend": 25.163799, "fair_value": 13.55457, "relative_strength": 11.918847, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 77.703935, "energy": 92.188664, "activity_lines": [ 25.945333, 25.686909, 25.468952, 25.44105 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 26.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 35.0, "trend": 25.418538, "fair_value": 13.669722, "relative_strength": 10.737079, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.314051, "energy": 88.529634, "activity_lines": [ 26.0, 25.776364, 25.531429, 25.494998 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 26.0, "volume": 100, "typical_volume": 40.0, "trend": 25.673277, "fair_value": 13.789276, "relative_strength": 8.169446, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 40.266496, "energy": 76.676797, "activity_lines": [ 26.0, 25.850909, 25.59, 25.532512 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 26.0, "volume": 100, "typical_volume": 45.0, "trend": 25.636046, "fair_value": 13.914202, "relative_strength": 10.409191, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 38.732288, "energy": 58.029915, "activity_lines": [ 26.0, 25.910545, 25.644667, 25.553591 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 26.0, "volume": 400, "typical_volume": 65.0, "trend": 25.598815, "fair_value": 14.03948, "relative_strength": 9.860532, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 36.868238, "energy": 56.283306, "activity_lines": [ 26.0, 25.955273, 25.695429, 25.577072 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 26.0, "volume": 100, "typical_volume": 70.0, "trend": 25.561585, "fair_value": 14.162117, "relative_strength": 7.153309, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.662527, "energy": 63.168404, "activity_lines": [ 26.0, 25.985091, 25.742286, 25.602955 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 26.0, "volume": 100, "typical_volume": 75.0, "trend": 25.524354, "fair_value": 14.286822, "relative_strength": 10.119609, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "up", "direction": 57.205917, "energy": 84.406701, "activity_lines": [ 26.0, 26.0, 25.785238, 25.631239 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }