{ "ticker": { "uuid": "228f4f8b-e8f1-4cc4-879a-02b818e0eab6", "symbol": "900937", "name": "Huadian Energy Company Limited", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 25.433, "architecture_energy": 20.418, "architecture_maturity": 66.167, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 51.62, "rotation_up": 21.55, "upward_expansion": 53.33, "deceleration": 90.93, "rotation_down": 36.44, "downward_expansion": 19.33 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.210667, 0.217109, 0.216105, 0.207163 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 0.218, "trend_reference": 0.1945, "distance_from_trend": 0.120823, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.162955, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.337792, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 19.818704, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.313253, "excess_performance": 0.356457, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.120823, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.121037, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.337792, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.140083, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.198187, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.184443, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.313253, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.329497, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 13612024, "relative_activity": 0.601281, "balance": 2.329497, "dry_up": 0.869711, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.124559, "annualized_volatility": 0.570054, "from_high_reference": -0.180451, "from_low_reference": 0.443709 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.1945, "fair_value_reference": 0.162955, "structural_low": 0.159, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.025267, "positive_rate": 0.7, "directional_follow_through": 0.7, "median_excess_return": 0.009382, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.170732, "worst_return": -0.173184, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.029947, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.018179, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.222973, "worst_return": -0.084967, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.067568, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.060543, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.189349, "worst_return": -0.073171, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.186207, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.009123, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.22973, "worst_return": -0.195122, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-10-11", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.005917, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.086705, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.05625, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.047904, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", 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25163524.8, "trend": 0.190533, "fair_value": 0.162353, "relative_strength": 18.130311, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 27.761762, "energy": 22.500112, "activity_lines": [ 0.210267, 0.2216, 0.21439, 0.204254 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.21, "volume": 11113445, "typical_volume": 23496672.1, "trend": 0.192367, "fair_value": 0.162609, "relative_strength": 18.987436, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 24.044826, "energy": 20.766948, "activity_lines": [ 0.2086, 0.218709, 0.214919, 0.20551 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.218, "volume": 13612024, "typical_volume": 22638362.35, "trend": 0.1945, "fair_value": 0.162955, "relative_strength": 19.818704, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 25.433333, "energy": 20.418376, "activity_lines": [ 0.210667, 0.217109, 0.216105, 0.207163 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }