{ "ticker": { "uuid": "22940ff7-68c5-4cac-8779-0cd317ed7581", "symbol": "RIOU", "name": "Amundi MSCI Brazil UCITS ETF", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 72.19, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -26.454, "architecture_energy": 21.825, "architecture_maturity": 22.078, "architecture_confidence": 62.412, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 61.33, "rotation_up": 35.84, "upward_expansion": 20.35, "deceleration": 41.96, "rotation_down": 19.2, "downward_expansion": 52.02 }, "activity_lines": [ 29.199833, 28.861045, 29.131702, 29.436387 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 28.875, "trend_reference": 29.632583, "distance_from_trend": -0.025566, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 23.075258, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.25134, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -1.968113, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.038942, "excess_performance": -0.090177, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.025566, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.035193, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.25134, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.153249, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.019681, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.197019, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.038942, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.412095, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 48889, "relative_activity": 1.465307, "balance": 1.412095, "dry_up": 1.123774, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.035979, "annualized_volatility": 0.238841, "from_high_reference": -0.148481, "from_low_reference": 0.42289 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 29.632583, "fair_value_reference": 23.075258, "structural_low": 27.337, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.022264, "positive_rate": 0.636364, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": 0.000594, "regime_survival": 0.363636, "best_return": 0.088315, "worst_return": -0.107079, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.014047, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.060212, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.197748, "worst_return": -0.137837, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.030215, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.146533, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.168584, "worst_return": -0.140854, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.074939, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.034878, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.18626, "worst_return": 0.059424, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.018174, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.05944, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.051541, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.030172, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.020715, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.021301, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.271731, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.157204, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.116637, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-04-17", "end": "2026-05-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.125726, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-05-22", "end": "2026-06-12", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.032703, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-06-19", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.044384, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.016352, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 20.735001, "volume": 18867, "typical_volume": 35924.55, "trend": 19.817767, "fair_value": 18.894163, "relative_strength": 9.895352, "stage": 2, "regime": 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75513, "typical_volume": 38476.7, "trend": 29.169917, "fair_value": 22.895594, "relative_strength": 3.383833, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -21.042032, "energy": 27.461816, "activity_lines": [ 28.399166, 28.39359, 29.320214, 29.4825 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 28.7075, "volume": 39115, "typical_volume": 30932.35, "trend": 29.289083, "fair_value": 22.935706, "relative_strength": 1.075741, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -15.284021, "energy": 17.720989, "activity_lines": [ 28.554167, 28.391454, 29.220892, 29.452666 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 29.355, "volume": 22914, "typical_volume": 30689.25, "trend": 29.421417, "fair_value": 22.979216, "relative_strength": 1.724028, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -8.389241, "energy": 13.978549, "activity_lines": [ 28.894333, 28.559091, 29.195131, 29.456919 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 29.785, "volume": 39058, "typical_volume": 31695.95, "trend": 29.556833, "fair_value": 23.027982, "relative_strength": 1.627054, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -19.17808, "energy": 22.5242, "activity_lines": [ 29.253333, 28.798091, 29.209369, 29.480376 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 28.875, "volume": 48889, "typical_volume": 33364.35, "trend": 29.632583, "fair_value": 23.075258, "relative_strength": -1.968113, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -26.454222, "energy": 21.824517, "activity_lines": [ 29.199833, 28.861045, 29.131702, 29.436387 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }