{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2294c018-7b1c-4991-a4b2-6e0f1086fade", "symbol": "ASML", "name": "ASML Holding N.V.", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 37.464, "architecture_energy": 23.432, "architecture_maturity": 69.022, "architecture_confidence": 88.468, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 40.31, "rotation_up": 23.95, "upward_expansion": 57.18, "deceleration": 91.16, "rotation_down": 28.17, "downward_expansion": 20.85 }, "activity_lines": [ 1501.012671, 1538.325697, 1483.730941, 1414.89786 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 1499.400024, "trend_reference": 1332.470561, "distance_from_trend": 0.125278, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 846.147709, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.772031, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 11.551855, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.28064, "excess_performance": 0.106394, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.125278, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.189944, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.772031, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.087636, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.115519, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.12419, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.28064, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.450764, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 790, "relative_activity": 2.394665, "balance": 0.450764, "dry_up": 3.166111, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.076818, "annualized_volatility": 0.365269, "from_high_reference": -0.103659, "from_low_reference": 1.446707 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1332.470561, "fair_value_reference": 846.147709, "structural_low": 1087.803365, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.072243, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.050281, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.178419, "worst_return": -0.127693, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.049038, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.03676, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.374514, "worst_return": -0.108471, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.044693, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.130813, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.373251, "worst_return": -0.245384, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 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"Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.352408, "energy": 78.520986, "activity_lines": [ 1603.945524, 1551.632932, 1431.271358, 1359.640212 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1526.960693, "volume": 1462, "typical_volume": 201.15, "trend": 1280.079533, "fair_value": 829.185479, "relative_strength": 22.173146, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.577123, "energy": 58.872011, "activity_lines": [ 1575.236051, 1558.057682, 1449.057826, 1376.936717 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1560.719971, "volume": 768, "typical_volume": 239.1, "trend": 1302.230172, "fair_value": 835.144775, "relative_strength": 21.794669, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 50.429996, "energy": 48.897941, "activity_lines": [ 1564.342293, 1566.548469, 1468.540312, 1395.042551 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1428.0, "volume": 1158, "typical_volume": 290.6, "trend": 1317.412561, "fair_value": 840.417709, "relative_strength": 10.461466, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 41.098808, "energy": 29.183785, "activity_lines": [ 1516.013884, 1546.15708, 1473.298068, 1403.156734 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1499.400024, "volume": 790, "typical_volume": 329.9, "trend": 1332.470561, "fair_value": 846.147709, "relative_strength": 11.551855, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 37.464263, "energy": 23.432321, "activity_lines": [ 1501.012671, 1538.325697, 1483.730941, 1414.89786 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }