{ "ticker": { "uuid": "22955a7a-488d-4333-b2c3-fa47345d4165", "symbol": "600372", "name": "AVIC Airborne Systems Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -44.949, "architecture_energy": 38.954, "architecture_maturity": 77.3, "architecture_confidence": 64.212, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 28.66, "rotation_up": 27.14, "upward_expansion": 18.07, "deceleration": 66.47, "rotation_down": 34.8, "downward_expansion": 63.4 }, "activity_lines": [ 11.269333, 11.207499, 11.498927, 12.087283 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 11.31, "trend_reference": 13.012739, "distance_from_trend": -0.130852, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 12.359165, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.08489, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -10.8387, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.271263, "excess_performance": -0.228059, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.130852, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.034834, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.08489, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.161326, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.108387, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.07571, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.271263, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.593815, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 141486207, "relative_activity": 0.954748, "balance": 0.593815, "dry_up": 1.04813, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.056077, "annualized_volatility": 0.285815, "from_high_reference": -0.33353, "from_low_reference": 0.068998 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 13.012739, "fair_value_reference": 12.359165, "structural_low": 10.58, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 25, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.48, "directional_follow_through": 0.48, "median_excess_return": -0.00391, "regime_survival": 0.76, "best_return": 0.18732, "worst_return": -0.100717, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.025554, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.051698, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.105763, "worst_return": -0.133955, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.048656, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.071958, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.151808, "worst_return": -0.167413, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"energy": 59.413967, "activity_lines": [ 11.208, 11.271609, 11.906445, 12.596613 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 10.93, "volume": 177961246, "typical_volume": 173843397.95, "trend": 13.208739, "fair_value": 12.424357, "relative_strength": -10.628984, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.222538, "energy": 58.644316, "activity_lines": [ 11.140667, 11.157537, 11.746292, 12.445834 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 11.23, "volume": 157667852, "typical_volume": 158869895.55, "trend": 13.145739, "fair_value": 12.402387, "relative_strength": -9.109523, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.56698, "energy": 44.915496, "activity_lines": [ 11.187333, 11.14659, 11.63952, 12.318174 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 11.34, "volume": 144183056, "typical_volume": 151215457.7, "trend": 13.083072, "fair_value": 12.38106, "relative_strength": -8.410639, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.58314, "energy": 40.220382, "activity_lines": [ 11.254, 11.176137, 11.563843, 12.201674 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 11.31, "volume": 141486207, "typical_volume": 148192166.5, "trend": 13.012739, "fair_value": 12.359165, "relative_strength": -10.8387, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.949088, "energy": 38.954108, "activity_lines": [ 11.269333, 11.207499, 11.498927, 12.087283 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }