{ "ticker": { "uuid": "229bc696-9a22-4b7c-9cc5-f10c03cab128", "symbol": "XLDX", "name": "Xtrackers LevDAX Daily Swap UCITS ETF 1C", "exchange": "EBS", "country": "CH", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SSMI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 90.735, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 84.287, "architecture_energy": 75.682, "architecture_maturity": 13.254, "architecture_confidence": 79.069, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 20.42, "rotation_up": 67.81, "upward_expansion": 87.04, "deceleration": 48.57, "rotation_down": 13.76, "downward_expansion": 16.04 }, "activity_lines": [ 273.843329, 268.584544, 261.598094, 256.584945 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 290.049988, "trend_reference": 254.279999, "distance_from_trend": 0.140672, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 206.82357, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.402403, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 2.500102, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.13812, "excess_performance": 0.055237, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.140672, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.014098, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.402403, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.133445, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.025001, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.080127, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.13812, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.974885, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4614, "relative_activity": 2.221634, "balance": 0.974885, "dry_up": 1.623011, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.041956, "annualized_volatility": 0.363264, "from_high_reference": -0.013603, "from_low_reference": 0.433407 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 254.279999, "fair_value_reference": 206.82357, "structural_low": 202.350006, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 26, "median_return": 0.00133, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.022275, "regime_survival": 0.692308, "best_return": 0.207876, "worst_return": -0.210081, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.037511, "positive_rate": 0.777778, "directional_follow_through": 0.777778, "median_excess_return": 0.065608, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.207068, "worst_return": -0.081096, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.091179, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.098938, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.252347, "worst_return": -0.039667, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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29.993043, "energy": 45.017243, "activity_lines": [ 263.633339, 260.275456, 253.133334, 252.208065 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 255.199997, "volume": 4284, "typical_volume": 1700.55, "trend": 253.27, "fair_value": 204.159275, "relative_strength": -9.359478, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 26.563622, "energy": 31.374469, "activity_lines": [ 261.630004, 259.940001, 253.850715, 252.330215 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 260.549988, "volume": 2933, "typical_volume": 1765.25, "trend": 253.351666, "fair_value": 204.905365, "relative_strength": -7.018025, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 26.515508, "energy": 32.482268, "activity_lines": [ 261.169999, 260.472726, 255.151666, 252.799892 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 275.850006, "volume": 1652, "typical_volume": 1846.8, "trend": 253.879999, "fair_value": 205.818762, "relative_strength": -1.38589, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "up", "direction": 70.70109, "energy": 43.601974, "activity_lines": [ 265.843334, 263.41091, 257.805952, 254.251397 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 290.049988, "volume": 4614, "typical_volume": 2076.85, "trend": 254.279999, "fair_value": 206.82357, "relative_strength": 2.500102, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 84.287272, "energy": 75.68239, "activity_lines": [ 273.843329, 268.584544, 261.598094, 256.584945 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }