{ "ticker": { "uuid": "229e85cf-95c7-4e25-b1fa-45b76db9a2cb", "symbol": "HCSG", "name": "Healthcare Services Group Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 76.089, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 39.654, "architecture_energy": 24.731, "architecture_maturity": 65.825, "architecture_confidence": 83.945, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 38.13, "rotation_up": 32.24, "upward_expansion": 62.33, "deceleration": 87.62, "rotation_down": 25.74, "downward_expansion": 14.67 }, "activity_lines": [ 23.132, 23.468364, 22.702095, 22.030323 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 22.23, "trend_reference": 21.215167, "distance_from_trend": 0.047835, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 14.110962, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.575371, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 0.05136, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.145876, "excess_performance": -0.041577, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.047835, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.079872, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.575371, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.146534, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.000514, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.106648, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.145876, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.136963, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4062712, "relative_activity": 1.179542, "balance": 1.136963, "dry_up": 1.175152, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.084673, "annualized_volatility": 0.455984, "from_high_reference": -0.136686, "from_low_reference": 0.565493 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 21.215167, "fair_value_reference": 14.110962, "structural_low": 17.25, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": -0.008146, "positive_rate": 0.409091, "directional_follow_through": 0.409091, "median_excess_return": -0.030756, "regime_survival": 0.681818, "best_return": 0.130959, "worst_return": -0.165816, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.053744, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": -0.162618, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.203075, "worst_return": -0.313361, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.028778, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.129429, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.265493, "worst_return": -0.425541, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"relative_strength": 9.229778, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.626258, "energy": 54.529247, "activity_lines": [ 24.061333, 23.533818, 22.479571, 21.804989 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 23.3, "volume": 3677732, "typical_volume": 3512513.45, "trend": 21.117833, "fair_value": 14.050641, "relative_strength": 10.596244, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 55.327926, "energy": 38.025208, "activity_lines": [ 23.741333, 23.624455, 22.650738, 21.95857 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 22.23, "volume": 4062712, "typical_volume": 3444313.85, "trend": 21.215167, "fair_value": 14.110962, "relative_strength": 0.05136, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.653905, "energy": 24.731195, "activity_lines": [ 23.132, 23.468364, 22.702095, 22.030323 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }