{ "ticker": { "uuid": "22a45a61-1ef3-42d4-aa83-7eecdd470d71", "symbol": "XLYS", "name": "Invesco Consumer Discretionary S&P US Select Sector UCITS ETF", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 95.18, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -12.599, "architecture_energy": 14.811, "architecture_maturity": 32.25, "architecture_confidence": 57.728, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 54.25, "rotation_up": 20.3, "upward_expansion": 15.47, "deceleration": 44.17, "rotation_down": 40.68, "downward_expansion": 65.14 }, "activity_lines": [ 826.493347, 827.365465, 831.478815, 829.311833 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 855.400024, "trend_reference": 831.995003, "distance_from_trend": 0.028131, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 722.536881, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.183884, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -5.772451, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.014529, "excess_performance": -0.036706, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.028131, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.007274, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.183884, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.037687, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.057725, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.040154, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.014529, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 17.63802, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 18696, "relative_activity": 4.93702, "balance": 17.63802, "dry_up": 1.344305, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.033403, "annualized_volatility": 0.204799, "from_high_reference": -0.03812, "from_low_reference": 0.124491 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 831.995003, "fair_value_reference": 722.536881, "structural_low": 760.700012, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.015121, "positive_rate": 0.615385, "directional_follow_through": 0.615385, "median_excess_return": 0.010741, "regime_survival": 0.538462, "best_return": 0.072893, "worst_return": -0.087906, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.056354, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": 0.059073, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.184498, "worst_return": -0.088005, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.102527, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.031526, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.266902, 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"energy": 44.937289, "activity_lines": [ 817.560014, 825.077279, 829.258576, 828.968929 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 816.75, "volume": 746, "typical_volume": 2940.5, "trend": 832.925002, "fair_value": 720.786016, "relative_strength": -9.939194, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -39.118681, "energy": 41.071994, "activity_lines": [ 815.313342, 822.441825, 828.572147, 827.861832 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 855.400024, "volume": 18696, "typical_volume": 3786.9, "trend": 831.995003, "fair_value": 722.536881, "relative_strength": -5.772451, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -12.599108, "energy": 14.810724, "activity_lines": [ 826.493347, 827.365465, 831.478815, 829.311833 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }