{ "ticker": { "uuid": "22ba9d52-0030-431a-a1dc-16c1a7b280a0", "symbol": "FSLR", "name": "First Solar, Inc.", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 51.804, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -3.244, "architecture_energy": 18.825, "architecture_maturity": 54.333, "architecture_confidence": 59.854, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 54.69, "rotation_up": 17.67, "upward_expansion": 17.09, "deceleration": 68.37, "rotation_down": 59.58, "downward_expansion": 44.43 }, "activity_lines": [ 3903.371338, 3997.552188, 4113.769002, 4012.771354 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 4350.0, "trend_reference": 3935.216325, "distance_from_trend": 0.105403, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3601.101282, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.207964, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 2.971333, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.164035, "excess_performance": 0.218702, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.105403, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.044046, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.207964, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.145563, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.029713, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.153911, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.164035, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 21.558411, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2393, "relative_activity": 1.615746, "balance": 21.558411, "dry_up": 0.776307, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.095616, "annualized_volatility": 0.627545, "from_high_reference": -0.206494, "from_low_reference": 0.345916 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3935.216325, "fair_value_reference": 3601.101282, "structural_low": 3232.0, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.058125, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": 0.050575, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.17806, "worst_return": -0.149635, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.031037, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.045711, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.366943, "worst_return": -0.216363, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.023126, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.016586, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.134777, "worst_return": -0.334648, "sufficient": false }, { 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"regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-10-25", "end": "2024-11-08", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.01127, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2024-11-29", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.017812, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-12-06", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.207161, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.141508, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.201587, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": 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1105, "typical_volume": 2287.7, "trend": 4049.737329, "fair_value": 3590.306346, "relative_strength": -4.011686, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 25.768633, "energy": 30.872883, "activity_lines": [ 4158.88335, 4413.300009, 4168.869761, 4060.138169 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 3550.01001, "volume": 423, "typical_volume": 1442.35, "trend": 4009.070996, "fair_value": 3591.819231, "relative_strength": -15.748632, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -23.038932, "energy": 33.939519, "activity_lines": [ 3918.416683, 4253.082737, 4132.123334, 4027.897697 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3650.0, "volume": 883, "typical_volume": 1378.65, "trend": 3969.904329, "fair_value": 3593.197436, "relative_strength": -12.932552, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -19.426447, "energy": 35.019606, "activity_lines": [ 3784.112679, 4114.590736, 4104.003763, 4004.731826 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3677.0, "volume": 900, "typical_volume": 1385.2, "trend": 3932.482992, "fair_value": 3595.614103, "relative_strength": -12.825434, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -25.695498, "energy": 36.907614, "activity_lines": [ 3707.475342, 3987.84419, 4077.098478, 3985.834772 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4350.0, "volume": 2393, "typical_volume": 1481.05, "trend": 3935.216325, "fair_value": 3601.101282, "relative_strength": 2.971333, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -3.244057, "energy": 18.824794, "activity_lines": [ 3903.371338, 3997.552188, 4113.769002, 4012.771354 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }