{ "ticker": { "uuid": "22bdd8fc-c19b-4113-a02d-ebf8e323d052", "symbol": "EWP", "name": "ISHARES INC MSCI SPAIN ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 84.06, "architecture_energy": 83.445, "architecture_maturity": 41.073, "architecture_confidence": 82.058, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 10.95, "rotation_up": 75.84, "upward_expansion": 94.16, "deceleration": 43.13, "rotation_down": 14.09, "downward_expansion": 18.49 }, "activity_lines": [ 61.074667, 60.180757, 58.650632, 57.498101 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 62.66, "trend_reference": 56.27771, "distance_from_trend": 0.113407, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 38.838328, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.613355, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 5.000475, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.127406, "excess_performance": 0.001781, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.113407, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.049842, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.613355, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.052705, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.050005, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.031331, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.127406, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.348096, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2147000, "relative_activity": 1.120816, "balance": 1.348096, "dry_up": 0.870423, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.029839, "annualized_volatility": 0.193625, "from_high_reference": -0.005712, "from_low_reference": 0.386266 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 56.27771, "fair_value_reference": 38.838328, "structural_low": 50.627403, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 34, "median_return": 0.014149, "positive_rate": 0.676471, "directional_follow_through": 0.676471, "median_excess_return": 0.001647, "regime_survival": 0.794118, "best_return": 0.112528, "worst_return": -0.092243, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.055027, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.012741, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.199834, "worst_return": -0.097244, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.111055, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.004168, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.337028, "worst_return": 0.015982, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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37.954791, "relative_strength": 3.119826, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.372296, "energy": 74.36519, "activity_lines": [ 59.182263, 58.198956, 56.909372, 56.173834 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 59.16, "volume": 1886249, "typical_volume": 2349104.15, "trend": 55.500872, "fair_value": 38.162548, "relative_strength": 3.940389, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.678453, "energy": 68.451714, "activity_lines": [ 59.263333, 58.51494, 57.232269, 56.423981 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 59.71, "volume": 1446875, "typical_volume": 2137578.7, "trend": 55.722905, "fair_value": 38.373657, "relative_strength": 5.241475, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.262121, "energy": 67.084604, "activity_lines": [ 59.436, 58.879596, 57.59415, 56.695537 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 61.48, "volume": 1189299, "typical_volume": 2026863.7, "trend": 55.977359, "fair_value": 38.60314, "relative_strength": 6.864668, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 79.40946, "energy": 70.738868, "activity_lines": [ 60.152, 59.476103, 58.08965, 57.066963 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 62.66, "volume": 2147000, "typical_volume": 1915568.95, "trend": 56.27771, "fair_value": 38.838328, "relative_strength": 5.000475, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 84.059616, "energy": 83.445153, "activity_lines": [ 61.074667, 60.180757, 58.650632, 57.498101 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }