{ "ticker": { "uuid": "22c3bdca-97d1-43c1-a453-f0fecb3ae051", "symbol": "TIMS3", "name": "TIM S.A.", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -86.916, "architecture_energy": 91.987, "architecture_maturity": 27.66, "architecture_confidence": 86.759, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.03, "rotation_up": 10.77, "upward_expansion": 21.7, "deceleration": 37.11, "rotation_down": 75.82, "downward_expansion": 92.7 }, "activity_lines": [ 20.260667, 21.150454, 22.052825, 23.064847 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 18.76, "trend_reference": 24.074353, "distance_from_trend": -0.220747, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 17.710858, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.059237, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -22.33412, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.260115, "excess_performance": -0.203066, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.220747, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.014273, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.059237, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.314075, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.223341, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.093752, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.260115, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.138142, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 66139000, "relative_activity": 2.758386, "balance": 0.138142, "dry_up": 2.053567, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.066857, "annualized_volatility": 0.311834, "from_high_reference": -0.343268, "from_low_reference": 0.011321 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 24.074353, "fair_value_reference": 17.710858, "structural_low": 18.549999, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.040774, "positive_rate": 0.769231, "directional_follow_through": 0.230769, "median_excess_return": 0.039556, "regime_survival": 0.615385, "best_return": 0.110475, "worst_return": -0.176471, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.196352, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.174878, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.35933, "worst_return": 0.083504, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.131479, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.312531, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.669635, "worst_return": -0.085005, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"orange", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2024-12-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.110177, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.084605, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.049463, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.176521, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.003129, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Established", "return": 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"energy": 41.483185, "activity_lines": [ 22.277667, 22.239178, 23.559937, 24.102887 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 22.780001, "volume": 21516300, "typical_volume": 20166790.0, "trend": 24.224077, "fair_value": 17.480293, "relative_strength": -9.964675, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.234341, "energy": 37.297186, "activity_lines": [ 22.496735, 22.282649, 23.38095, 24.010688 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 22.6, "volume": 32273300, "typical_volume": 20012255.0, "trend": 24.252133, "fair_value": 17.552692, "relative_strength": -8.376483, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -40.329549, "energy": 26.530776, "activity_lines": [ 22.592709, 22.343852, 23.204089, 23.905909 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 21.469999, "volume": 34686200, "typical_volume": 20680250.0, "trend": 24.256805, "fair_value": 17.616365, "relative_strength": -12.918769, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.895577, "energy": 36.342763, "activity_lines": [ 22.294666, 22.209664, 22.94404, 23.726416 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 19.43, "volume": 63858500, "typical_volume": 22000700.0, "trend": 24.187514, "fair_value": 17.666757, "relative_strength": -22.537678, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -81.554541, "energy": 63.028525, "activity_lines": [ 21.279333, 21.714606, 22.51365, 23.415009 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 18.76, "volume": 66139000, "typical_volume": 23977430.0, "trend": 24.074353, "fair_value": 17.710858, "relative_strength": -22.33412, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -86.915793, "energy": 91.986508, "activity_lines": [ 20.260667, 21.150454, 22.052825, 23.064847 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }