{ "ticker": { "uuid": "22d665cf-9176-400c-a5e3-f72e8823b3c4", "symbol": "MNSON", "name": "MINISO Group Holding Limited", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -59.391, "architecture_energy": 53.892, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 93.358, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 25.64, "rotation_up": 27.98, "upward_expansion": 22.5, "deceleration": 47.0, "rotation_down": 42.09, "downward_expansion": 70.17 }, "activity_lines": [ 218.860001, 216.885637, 226.57335, 244.496919 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 212.220001, "trend_reference": 271.673643, "distance_from_trend": -0.218842, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 362.186574, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.414059, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -37.016957, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.354092, "excess_performance": -0.299426, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.218842, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.150314, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.414059, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.099757, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.37017, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.003384, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.354092, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.749634, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 6032, "relative_activity": 1.587076, "balance": 0.749634, "dry_up": 1.494264, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.053602, "annualized_volatility": 0.303488, "from_high_reference": -0.561569, "from_low_reference": 0.055821 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 271.673643, "fair_value_reference": 362.186574, "structural_low": 201.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": 0.028669, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": 0.033156, "regime_survival": 0.777778, "best_return": 0.769367, "worst_return": -0.126437, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.135008, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": 0.03186, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 1.12963, "worst_return": -0.272132, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.109645, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": 0.092473, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 1.962963, "worst_return": -0.408569, "sufficient": 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.381195, "energy": 64.281122, "activity_lines": [ 216.496001, 217.061274, 232.112524, 252.180036 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 226.0, "volume": 7630, "typical_volume": 3499.1, "trend": 276.480431, "fair_value": 362.994, "relative_strength": -33.711423, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.216179, "energy": 54.124505, "activity_lines": [ 220.808001, 218.126183, 229.776335, 248.642753 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 212.220001, "volume": 6032, "typical_volume": 3800.7, "trend": 271.673643, "fair_value": 362.186574, "relative_strength": -37.016957, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.390878, "energy": 53.892087, "activity_lines": [ 218.860001, 216.885637, 226.57335, 244.496919 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }