{ "ticker": { "uuid": "22d681f6-0395-4a5a-a264-bad0d1d80b1e", "symbol": "PRH", "name": "Livingstone Health Holdings Limited", "exchange": "SES", "country": "SG", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^STI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -71.749, "architecture_energy": 54.426, "architecture_maturity": 9.798, "architecture_confidence": 93.204, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 27.71, "rotation_up": 15.04, "upward_expansion": 9.66, "deceleration": 41.02, "rotation_down": 59.27, "downward_expansion": 80.66 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.026067, 0.026418, 0.026824, 0.027054 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 0.025, "trend_reference": 0.0277, "distance_from_trend": -0.097473, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.026442, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.054545, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -23.008598, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.166667, "excess_performance": -0.321502, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.097473, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.030338, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.054545, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.050896, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.230086, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.211747, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.166667, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.202998, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 980100, "relative_activity": 0.714278, "balance": 0.202998, "dry_up": 0.197809, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.052308, "annualized_volatility": 0.298978, "from_high_reference": -0.324324, "from_low_reference": 0.25 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.0277, "fair_value_reference": 0.026442, "structural_low": 0.024, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 42, "median_return": -0.030649, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.619048, "median_excess_return": -0.017153, "regime_survival": 0.880952, "best_return": 0.9, "worst_return": -0.295455, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.080406, "positive_rate": 0.214286, "directional_follow_through": 0.785714, "median_excess_return": -0.094845, "regime_survival": 0.785714, "best_return": 0.764706, "worst_return": -0.35, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.097404, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.074317, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.55, "worst_return": -0.45, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.427733, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.450912, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.375, "worst_return": -0.680144, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.086957, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.238095, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.291667, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.277778, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.047619, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.125, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.428571, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.185185, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.103448, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.115385, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.037037, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 0.05, "volume": 3400, "typical_volume": 57940.0, "trend": 0.057733, "fair_value": 0.182002, "relative_strength": -32.539765, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.849293, 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"balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.923948, "energy": 36.310732, "activity_lines": [ 0.0268, 0.027036, 0.027171, 0.027617 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 0.027, "volume": 86900, "typical_volume": 1646975.0, "trend": 0.028267, "fair_value": 0.026699, "relative_strength": -14.333863, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -43.788373, "energy": 39.296747, "activity_lines": [ 0.026733, 0.027, 0.027148, 0.027535 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.027, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 1583015.0, "trend": 0.0282, "fair_value": 0.026583, "relative_strength": -14.585942, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.941203, "energy": 44.168256, "activity_lines": [ 0.026733, 0.026964, 0.027133, 0.027454 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.027, "volume": 79600, "typical_volume": 1403670.0, "trend": 0.0281, "fair_value": 0.026513, "relative_strength": -15.565364, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.116553, "energy": 34.430346, "activity_lines": [ 0.0268, 0.026945, 0.027129, 0.027376 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.026, "volume": 26000, "typical_volume": 1371775.0, "trend": 0.0279, "fair_value": 0.026481, "relative_strength": -19.088629, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.761546, "energy": 33.315778, "activity_lines": [ 0.0266, 0.026764, 0.027024, 0.027241 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.025, "volume": 980100, "typical_volume": 1372155.0, "trend": 0.0277, "fair_value": 0.026442, "relative_strength": -23.008598, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.748783, "energy": 54.425888, "activity_lines": [ 0.026067, 0.026418, 0.026824, 0.027054 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }