{ "ticker": { "uuid": "22e9c529-b5ba-4573-8698-120709068780", "symbol": "VLOE34", "name": "Valero Energy Corporation", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 67.862, "architecture_energy": 85.795, "architecture_maturity": 40.814, "architecture_confidence": 86.996, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 5.06, "rotation_up": 79.53, "upward_expansion": 96.81, "deceleration": 42.27, "rotation_down": 9.09, "downward_expansion": 21.15 }, "activity_lines": [ 762.378666, 732.301634, 685.879958, 658.340258 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 762.059998, "trend_reference": 616.96522, "distance_from_trend": 0.235175, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 420.245725, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.813368, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 37.038418, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.444929, "excess_performance": 0.501978, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.235175, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.152999, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.813368, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.279714, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.370384, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.275354, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.444929, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.740854, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 101, "relative_activity": 0.785992, "balance": 2.740854, "dry_up": 1.001946, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.053638, "annualized_volatility": 0.377583, "from_high_reference": -0.072468, "from_low_reference": 1.169477 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 616.96522, "fair_value_reference": 420.245725, "structural_low": 507.788696, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 31, "median_return": 0.014436, "positive_rate": 0.548387, "directional_follow_through": 0.548387, "median_excess_return": -0.005459, "regime_survival": 0.677419, "best_return": 0.316003, "worst_return": -0.140293, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.121265, "positive_rate": 0.727273, "directional_follow_through": 0.727273, "median_excess_return": 0.057573, "regime_survival": 0.454545, "best_return": 0.304267, "worst_return": -0.219576, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.188888, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": 0.041048, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.552367, "worst_return": -0.190758, "sufficient": true }, { 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"activity_lines": [ 705.059998, 679.498169, 648.14409, 624.351045 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 770.0, "volume": 141, "typical_volume": 146.45, "trend": 596.575734, "fair_value": 414.258724, "relative_strength": 39.731427, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 86.069887, "energy": 93.250152, "activity_lines": [ 733.207333, 699.763996, 661.319058, 636.241322 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 785.0, "volume": 177, "typical_volume": 152.75, "trend": 607.950759, "fair_value": 417.410498, "relative_strength": 38.073219, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 85.405464, "energy": 93.442365, "activity_lines": [ 755.403333, 719.66727, 675.089676, 648.397726 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 762.059998, "volume": 101, "typical_volume": 128.5, "trend": 616.96522, "fair_value": 420.245725, "relative_strength": 37.038418, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.861638, "energy": 85.794821, "activity_lines": [ 762.378666, 732.301634, 685.879958, 658.340258 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }