{ "ticker": { "uuid": "22f0ac88-1699-4914-ad1f-6bfdf15bffbd", "symbol": "NAGAFERT", "name": "Nagarjuna Fertilizers and Chemicals Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -91.888, "architecture_energy": 97.126, "architecture_maturity": 62.0, "architecture_confidence": 77.019, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 0.0, "rotation_up": 8.12, "upward_expansion": 22.0, "deceleration": 37.0, "rotation_down": 89.91, "downward_expansion": 100.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.666667, 2.908364, 3.268048, 3.50886 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 2.49, "trend_reference": 3.857333, "distance_from_trend": -0.354476, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 7.653526, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.67466, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -42.376402, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.476891, "excess_performance": -0.433182, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.354476, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.127169, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.67466, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.147394, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.423764, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.231676, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.476891, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.188277, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 427016, "relative_activity": 0.535289, "balance": 0.188277, "dry_up": 0.371545, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.063639, "annualized_volatility": 0.227778, "from_high_reference": -0.598387, "from_low_reference": 0.0 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.857333, "fair_value_reference": 7.653526, "structural_low": 2.49, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 28, "median_return": 0.005848, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.464286, "median_excess_return": -0.012233, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.389151, "worst_return": -0.238806, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.00641, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": -0.012351, "regime_survival": 0.454545, "best_return": 0.624277, "worst_return": -0.243743, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.123932, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.08832, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.587571, "worst_return": -0.39204, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"color": "teal", "start": "2024-06-28", "end": "2024-07-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.114625, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-07-26", "end": "2024-08-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.12415, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-09-06", "end": "2024-09-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.088435, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-09-27", "end": "2024-11-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.150309, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.400435, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.087971, "active": false }, { "regime": 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-90.467471, "energy": 95.969128, "activity_lines": [ 3.25, 3.44, 3.657143, 3.862194 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 2.89, "volume": 285073, "typical_volume": 1172364.1, "trend": 4.101, "fair_value": 7.791282, "relative_strength": -35.289965, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -90.916847, "energy": 96.518991, "activity_lines": [ 3.093333, 3.314545, 3.568238, 3.780215 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.75, "volume": 265616, "typical_volume": 1087485.65, "trend": 4.028333, "fair_value": 7.751218, "relative_strength": -36.094415, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -91.388578, "energy": 96.859072, "activity_lines": [ 2.944, 3.181636, 3.473048, 3.693054 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.62, "volume": 207865, "typical_volume": 979333.15, "trend": 3.936667, "fair_value": 7.711603, "relative_strength": -39.786821, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -91.447591, "energy": 96.943531, "activity_lines": [ 2.802667, 3.045818, 3.373048, 3.602194 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.49, "volume": 427016, "typical_volume": 797730.3, "trend": 3.857333, "fair_value": 7.653526, "relative_strength": -42.376402, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -91.887909, "energy": 97.126424, "activity_lines": [ 2.666667, 2.908364, 3.268048, 3.50886 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }