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Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 54.771, "architecture_energy": 39.554, "architecture_maturity": 23.089, "architecture_confidence": 82.393, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 36.4, "rotation_up": 48.84, "upward_expansion": 76.82, "deceleration": 56.41, "rotation_down": 22.99, "downward_expansion": 8.15 }, "activity_lines": [ 70.606, 69.970545, 68.310964, 65.86207 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 71.57, "trend_reference": 63.999955, "distance_from_trend": 0.118282, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 65.452035, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.093472, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 1.553111, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.054688, "excess_performance": -0.070937, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.118282, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.02316, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.093472, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.109141, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.015531, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.060208, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.054688, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.645082, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4103452, "relative_activity": 0.762023, "balance": 1.645082, "dry_up": 0.793919, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.095238, "annualized_volatility": 0.44893, "from_high_reference": -0.082199, "from_low_reference": 0.533482 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 63.999955, "fair_value_reference": 65.452035, "structural_low": 46.671562, 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"fair_value": 66.302724, "relative_strength": 9.193152, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.35407, "energy": 34.670885, "activity_lines": [ 69.429333, 69.208285, 66.316024, 64.557753 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 73.04, "volume": 3158395, "typical_volume": 5390892.6, "trend": 63.893084, "fair_value": 66.006692, "relative_strength": 9.073895, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.749104, "energy": 34.053092, "activity_lines": [ 70.6, 70.021699, 67.30518, 65.165501 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 67.08, "volume": 6227376, "typical_volume": 5422241.0, "trend": 63.960103, "fair_value": 65.698022, "relative_strength": -1.175473, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 50.076011, "energy": 31.096186, "activity_lines": [ 69.672, 69.58725, 67.635098, 65.371109 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 71.57, "volume": 4103452, "typical_volume": 5384942.45, "trend": 63.999955, "fair_value": 65.452035, "relative_strength": 1.553111, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 54.770874, "energy": 39.55443, "activity_lines": [ 70.606, 69.970545, 68.310964, 65.86207 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }