{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2310e57f-bb98-4d3f-bbff-de6c4bf07052", "symbol": "TIP1A", "name": "UBS Core BBG TIPS 1-10 UCITS ETF USD acc", "exchange": "EBS", "country": "CH", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SSMI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 94.622, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 13.296, "architecture_energy": 9.221, "architecture_maturity": 14.746, "architecture_confidence": 67.501, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 56.79, "rotation_up": 26.05, "upward_expansion": 41.91, "deceleration": 73.79, "rotation_down": 27.35, "downward_expansion": 31.25 }, "activity_lines": [ 16.260567, 16.269782, 16.282483, 16.27225 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 16.2675, "trend_reference": 16.245817, "distance_from_trend": 0.001335, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 15.305596, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.062847, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -9.367707, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.008274, "excess_performance": -0.074609, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.001335, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.004111, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.062847, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.018401, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.093677, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.079041, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.008274, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.347217, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 311690, "relative_activity": 2.692287, "balance": 1.347217, "dry_up": 1.253496, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.0068, "annualized_volatility": 0.027437, "from_high_reference": -0.016029, "from_low_reference": 0.027021 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 16.245817, "fair_value_reference": 15.305596, "structural_low": 16.019501, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": 0.000112, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.001093, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.030455, "worst_return": -0.030644, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.007931, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": 0.009907, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.033066, "worst_return": -0.052149, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.012685, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.007809, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.047559, "worst_return": -0.04727, "sufficient": true 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15.278141, "relative_strength": -8.686305, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 13.855234, "energy": 6.371403, "activity_lines": [ 16.277066, 16.281409, 16.286502, 16.270406 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 16.2355, "volume": 110532, "typical_volume": 103784.8, "trend": 16.239867, "fair_value": 15.29184, "relative_strength": -8.605461, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 8.46906, "energy": 6.805231, "activity_lines": [ 16.2619, 16.2728, 16.283059, 16.270468 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 16.2675, "volume": 311690, "typical_volume": 115771.45, "trend": 16.245817, "fair_value": 15.305596, "relative_strength": -9.367707, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 13.295996, "energy": 9.221064, "activity_lines": [ 16.260567, 16.269782, 16.282483, 16.27225 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }