{ "ticker": { "uuid": "23182a48-2dae-4276-b9c7-650cb645ce7e", "symbol": "002949", "name": "Shenzhen Capol International & Associatesco.,Ltd", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.311, "architecture_energy": 60.812, "architecture_maturity": 64.666, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 9.44, "rotation_up": 25.68, "upward_expansion": 11.23, "deceleration": 59.96, "rotation_down": 56.08, "downward_expansion": 84.57 }, "activity_lines": [ 9.966, 10.117636, 11.152603, 11.945862 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 10.41, "trend_reference": 13.047381, "distance_from_trend": -0.202139, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 12.988527, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.198523, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -26.484214, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.333875, "excess_performance": -0.341275, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.202139, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.088321, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.198523, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.293665, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.264842, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.086193, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.333875, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.264392, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 14983907, "relative_activity": 1.06628, "balance": 0.264392, "dry_up": 1.082865, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.092343, "annualized_volatility": 0.364262, "from_high_reference": -0.38681, "from_low_reference": 0.152824 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 13.047381, "fair_value_reference": 12.988527, "structural_low": 9.03, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 26, "median_return": -0.005986, "positive_rate": 0.461538, "directional_follow_through": 0.538462, "median_excess_return": -0.017053, "regime_survival": 0.769231, "best_return": 0.285078, "worst_return": -0.295117, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.079496, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.037672, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 1.338269, "worst_return": -0.271329, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.085258, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": 0.115922, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.092762, "worst_return": -0.152866, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"down", "direction": -74.087844, "energy": 85.620306, "activity_lines": [ 10.136667, 10.71897, 11.873796, 12.625351 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 9.2, "volume": 16773209, "typical_volume": 14460641.55, "trend": 13.385272, "fair_value": 13.015858, "relative_strength": -33.838679, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -82.553947, "energy": 79.431719, "activity_lines": [ 9.788667, 10.318365, 11.545887, 12.346254 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 9.98, "volume": 14048247, "typical_volume": 14288598.9, "trend": 13.210801, "fair_value": 13.00162, "relative_strength": -26.479134, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.966093, "energy": 65.371272, "activity_lines": [ 9.807333, 10.146545, 11.31851, 12.126559 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 10.41, "volume": 14983907, "typical_volume": 14052508.25, "trend": 13.047381, "fair_value": 12.988527, "relative_strength": -26.484214, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.31054, "energy": 60.812257, "activity_lines": [ 9.966, 10.117636, 11.152603, 11.945862 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }