{ "ticker": { "uuid": "23186c1d-0837-41d6-b83f-1397ceabfc09", "symbol": "ETZD", "name": "BNP Paribas Easy Stoxx Europe 600 UCITS ETF EUR C/D", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 82.623, "architecture_energy": 76.633, "architecture_maturity": 38.708, "architecture_confidence": 90.297, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.57, "rotation_up": 65.4, "upward_expansion": 88.98, "deceleration": 50.06, "rotation_down": 21.2, "downward_expansion": 15.65 }, "activity_lines": [ 18.720666, 18.591236, 18.263785, 17.987036 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 19.021999, "trend_reference": 17.701918, "distance_from_trend": 0.074573, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 14.893589, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.277194, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 4.559016, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.091436, "excess_performance": 0.038124, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.074573, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.039779, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.277194, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.062311, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.04559, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.014627, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.091436, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.720399, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 78445, "relative_activity": 0.742978, "balance": 1.720399, "dry_up": 1.109654, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.018829, "annualized_volatility": 0.149141, "from_high_reference": -0.00398, "from_low_reference": 0.24537 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 17.701918, "fair_value_reference": 14.893589, "structural_low": 15.841898, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 39, "median_return": 0.011689, "positive_rate": 0.589744, "directional_follow_through": 0.589744, "median_excess_return": 0.001864, "regime_survival": 0.794872, "best_return": 0.071263, "worst_return": -0.053161, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.024413, "positive_rate": 0.846154, "directional_follow_through": 0.846154, "median_excess_return": 0.000854, "regime_survival": 0.461538, "best_return": 0.080539, "worst_return": -0.041641, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.07048, "positive_rate": 0.777778, "directional_follow_through": 0.777778, "median_excess_return": 0.03493, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.153117, "worst_return": -0.124716, "sufficient": true }, { 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"activity_lines": [ 18.478933, 18.323318, 17.965525, 17.760882 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 18.542, "volume": 146382, "typical_volume": 115542.15, "trend": 17.580054, "fair_value": 14.808659, "relative_strength": 6.492849, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.351882, "energy": 73.240005, "activity_lines": [ 18.512133, 18.394109, 18.053378, 17.827027 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 18.68, "volume": 62691, "typical_volume": 107526.4, "trend": 17.641799, "fair_value": 14.850053, "relative_strength": 5.347875, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 70.112438, "energy": 59.197088, "activity_lines": [ 18.572666, 18.468436, 18.146609, 17.897991 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 19.021999, "volume": 78445, "typical_volume": 105581.8, "trend": 17.701918, "fair_value": 14.893589, "relative_strength": 4.559016, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 82.622923, "energy": 76.632972, "activity_lines": [ 18.720666, 18.591236, 18.263785, 17.987036 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }