{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2318d72c-696d-433b-a41a-d522e4ad297c", "symbol": "00703", "name": "Taishin MSCI China ETF", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -10.411, "architecture_energy": 22.39, "architecture_maturity": 97.649, "architecture_confidence": 45.345, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 50.53, "rotation_up": 43.92, "upward_expansion": 22.89, "deceleration": 41.3, "rotation_down": 17.28, "downward_expansion": 54.55 }, "activity_lines": [ 19.822667, 19.332909, 19.441333, 19.751591 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 20.139999, "trend_reference": 20.304667, "distance_from_trend": -0.00811, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 17.826218, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.129797, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -30.749829, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.101695, "excess_performance": -0.481007, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.00811, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.043271, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.129797, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.045928, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.307498, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.038687, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.101695, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.738605, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 164000, "relative_activity": 0.62883, "balance": 0.738605, "dry_up": 0.739349, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.041173, "annualized_volatility": 0.202427, "from_high_reference": -0.129646, "from_low_reference": 0.156142 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 20.304667, "fair_value_reference": 17.826218, "structural_low": 17.42, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 31, "median_return": -0.025044, "positive_rate": 0.387097, "directional_follow_through": 0.612903, "median_excess_return": -0.018789, "regime_survival": 0.870968, "best_return": 0.113738, "worst_return": -0.101039, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.086669, "positive_rate": 0.3, "directional_follow_through": 0.7, "median_excess_return": -0.092375, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.175352, "worst_return": -0.167284, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.111699, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.146482, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.113181, "worst_return": -0.214553, "sufficient": true }, { 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"regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-06-28", "end": "2024-09-27", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.13737, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2024-11-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.150651, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.153708, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.109636, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.057189, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-08", 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"date": "2026-07-10", "close": 19.16, "volume": 342337, "typical_volume": 376250.4, "trend": 20.564, "fair_value": 17.721346, "relative_strength": -38.429175, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.067597, "energy": 75.978235, "activity_lines": [ 18.518, 18.862727, 19.448905, 19.934086 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 19.24, "volume": 249132, "typical_volume": 335807.0, "trend": 20.482, "fair_value": 17.748077, "relative_strength": -33.606707, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.119402, "energy": 52.030648, "activity_lines": [ 18.738, 18.864727, 19.389572, 19.848667 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 19.440001, "volume": 176056, "typical_volume": 294709.8, "trend": 20.41, "fair_value": 17.772115, "relative_strength": -33.734046, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.019621, "energy": 30.263022, "activity_lines": [ 19.035334, 18.927455, 19.357143, 19.781441 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 20.17, "volume": 182106, "typical_volume": 272501.65, "trend": 20.362667, "fair_value": 17.802244, "relative_strength": -29.634833, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -17.803434, "energy": 22.243507, "activity_lines": [ 19.523334, 19.136909, 19.399048, 19.765957 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 20.139999, "volume": 164000, "typical_volume": 260801.65, "trend": 20.304667, "fair_value": 17.826218, "relative_strength": -30.749829, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -10.410559, "energy": 22.389888, "activity_lines": [ 19.822667, 19.332909, 19.441333, 19.751591 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }