{ "ticker": { "uuid": "231b76f7-133e-426e-8e83-0744415e13dc", "symbol": "BODI", "name": "The Beachbody Company, Inc.", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 71.064, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -5.601, "architecture_energy": 6.669, "architecture_maturity": 14.098, "architecture_confidence": 62.474, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 65.86, "rotation_up": 29.45, "upward_expansion": 15.8, "deceleration": 59.72, "rotation_down": 29.03, "downward_expansion": 33.8 }, "activity_lines": [ 10.35, 10.319455, 10.752429, 10.784925 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 10.33, "trend_reference": 10.664333, "distance_from_trend": -0.031351, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 7.708446, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.340089, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -1.133288, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.047048, "excess_performance": -0.234502, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.031351, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.033466, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.340089, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.497722, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.011333, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.52582, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.047048, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.5184, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 143130, "relative_activity": 0.539729, "balance": 0.5184, "dry_up": 0.435232, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.167488, "annualized_volatility": 0.913061, "from_high_reference": -0.38767, "from_low_reference": 1.548163 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 10.664333, "fair_value_reference": 7.708446, "structural_low": 6.77, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.074373, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.070954, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": -0.074373, "worst_return": -0.074373, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.094574, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.049541, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.43838, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.098528, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.058605, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-06-19", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.191882, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-06-26", "end": "2026-07-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.066206, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-10", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.074373, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2024-03-08", "close": 9.34, "volume": 96971, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-03-15", "close": 8.54, "volume": 235848, "typical_volume": null, 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"upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -28.189514, "energy": 31.539757, "activity_lines": [ 9.644667, 10.797818, 11.071333, 10.850559 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 10.12, "volume": 131351, "typical_volume": 300380.8, "trend": 10.66, "fair_value": 7.567542, "relative_strength": 5.355127, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -19.285454, "energy": 31.097504, "activity_lines": [ 9.684, 10.499091, 11.012857, 10.818495 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 10.79, "volume": 114673, "typical_volume": 297586.1, "trend": 10.648333, "fair_value": 7.593956, "relative_strength": 10.198567, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -16.064783, "energy": 23.323385, "activity_lines": [ 9.984667, 10.360364, 11.021619, 10.826882 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 11.16, "volume": 135939, "typical_volume": 299601.15, "trend": 10.634333, "fair_value": 7.622948, "relative_strength": 10.691278, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 0.937431, "energy": 7.225966, "activity_lines": [ 10.418667, 10.374364, 11.056429, 10.859892 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 10.37, "volume": 112651, "typical_volume": 298594.1, "trend": 10.603333, "fair_value": 7.645102, "relative_strength": 6.182203, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 3.929471, "energy": 5.507032, "activity_lines": [ 10.524, 10.314364, 11.001, 10.842839 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 10.9, "volume": 118227, "typical_volume": 297046.15, "trend": 10.631667, "fair_value": 7.671141, "relative_strength": 12.227144, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 7.590916, "energy": 9.447323, "activity_lines": [ 10.744, 10.409636, 10.97981, 10.861978 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 9.75, "volume": 87666, "typical_volume": 280238.6, "trend": 10.642667, "fair_value": 7.68764, "relative_strength": -1.111353, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -2.68246, "energy": 4.471139, "activity_lines": [ 10.438, 10.303273, 10.836571, 10.805097 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 10.33, "volume": 143130, "typical_volume": 265188.4, "trend": 10.664333, "fair_value": 7.708446, "relative_strength": -1.133288, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -5.601072, "energy": 6.66916, "activity_lines": [ 10.35, 10.319455, 10.752429, 10.784925 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }