{ "ticker": { "uuid": "23259c07-9230-466a-a670-f1ef8304da4f", "symbol": "NLY", "name": "Annaly Capital Management, Inc.", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 49.25, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Value reclamation", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 67.04, "architecture_energy": 55.175, "architecture_maturity": 11.864, "architecture_confidence": 71.004, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The prior uptrend is attempting to re-accelerate.", "body": "Positive Trend survived a recompression and Fast Activity is strengthening again. Promotion requires renewed confirmation across the completed evidence set." }, "scores": { "balance": 28.1, "rotation_up": 69.28, "upward_expansion": 84.92, "deceleration": 48.11, "rotation_down": 12.16, "downward_expansion": 9.25 }, "activity_lines": [ 22.820667, 22.580032, 22.139281, 21.986775 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 23.04, "trend_reference": 21.978395, "distance_from_trend": 0.048302, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 17.407525, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.323565, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -3.390045, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.041687, "excess_performance": -0.083938, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.048302, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.014181, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.323565, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.014107, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.0339, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.001473, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.041687, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.005331, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 40260438, "relative_activity": 1.153288, "balance": 3.005331, "dry_up": 1.106572, "accumulation_observations": 7, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.036437, "annualized_volatility": 0.191659, "from_high_reference": -0.02926, "from_low_reference": 0.245303 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 21.978395, "fair_value_reference": 17.407525, "structural_low": 19.959405, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.033161, "positive_rate": 0.142857, "directional_follow_through": 0.142857, "median_excess_return": -0.034774, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.016992, "worst_return": -0.150508, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.076161, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.123535, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.017405, "worst_return": -0.218587, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.05503, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.109203, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.0439, "worst_return": -0.117775, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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"regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 33.30545, "energy": 57.287699, "activity_lines": [ 22.67968, 22.233472, 21.918776, 21.867156 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 22.72, "volume": 48725844, "typical_volume": 36063338.95, "trend": 21.96218, "fair_value": 17.34805, "relative_strength": -1.377945, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 34.43556, "energy": 54.415983, "activity_lines": [ 22.714, 22.395535, 22.017506, 21.917239 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 23.04, "volume": 40260438, "typical_volume": 34909276.45, "trend": 21.978395, "fair_value": 17.407525, "relative_strength": -3.390045, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.039706, "energy": 55.17465, "activity_lines": [ 22.820667, 22.580032, 22.139281, 21.986775 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }