{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2325c6a3-fe12-4e91-9c59-132dc0a98b37", "symbol": "601156", "name": "Eastern Air Logistics Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 48.51, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": 0.379, "architecture_energy": 8.311, "architecture_maturity": 14.416, "architecture_confidence": 73.241, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 63.97, "rotation_up": 36.15, "upward_expansion": 29.78, "deceleration": 41.3, "rotation_down": 21.45, "downward_expansion": 49.44 }, "activity_lines": [ 16.72767, 16.464841, 16.366723, 16.653564 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 17.35, "trend_reference": 17.144152, "distance_from_trend": 0.012007, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 15.359734, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.129577, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 4.590284, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.067706, "excess_performance": -0.024502, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.012007, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.014364, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.129577, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.050538, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.045903, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.109269, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.067706, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.007137, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 44297659, "relative_activity": 1.098731, "balance": 1.007137, "dry_up": 1.547313, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.063875, "annualized_volatility": 0.256413, "from_high_reference": -0.116149, "from_low_reference": 0.248201 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 17.144152, "fair_value_reference": 15.359734, "structural_low": 15.12, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.013339, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.029024, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.064955, "worst_return": -0.14399, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.030274, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.014979, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.189577, "worst_return": -0.221531, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.072693, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.001988, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.390483, "worst_return": -0.245098, 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42.924839, "activity_lines": [ 15.942991, 16.032762, 16.489076, 16.943032 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 17.070103, "volume": 10820600, "typical_volume": 35639656.6, "trend": 17.349317, "fair_value": 15.231676, "relative_strength": 1.0739, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -37.169261, "energy": 26.317842, "activity_lines": [ 16.265065, 16.204064, 16.491613, 16.926438 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 15.785049, "volume": 67062532, "typical_volume": 37188485.45, "trend": 17.329152, "fair_value": 15.253234, "relative_strength": -5.484162, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.057956, "energy": 32.857825, "activity_lines": [ 16.11878, 16.138991, 16.378381, 16.825518 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 15.69, "volume": 75077443, "typical_volume": 39717669.5, "trend": 17.281485, "fair_value": 15.274182, "relative_strength": -0.372677, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.659357, "energy": 33.325699, "activity_lines": [ 15.992476, 16.060545, 16.269788, 16.719766 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 16.24, "volume": 71904198, "typical_volume": 40321924.45, "trend": 17.225152, "fair_value": 15.298227, "relative_strength": 1.57532, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.915039, "energy": 23.731545, "activity_lines": [ 16.069907, 16.092643, 16.229481, 16.652573 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 17.07, "volume": 58253380, "typical_volume": 40338583.8, "trend": 17.179485, "fair_value": 15.327655, "relative_strength": 6.01071, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -22.22448, "energy": 12.970565, "activity_lines": [ 16.401347, 16.262561, 16.281602, 16.642564 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 17.35, "volume": 44297659, "typical_volume": 40317094.25, "trend": 17.144152, "fair_value": 15.359734, "relative_strength": 4.590284, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 0.379416, "energy": 8.310984, "activity_lines": [ 16.72767, 16.464841, 16.366723, 16.653564 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }