{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2326893f-822e-4d6b-ad68-914fe698db38", "symbol": "9902", "name": "Tidehold Development Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -51.169, "architecture_energy": 30.435, "architecture_maturity": 61.184, "architecture_confidence": 87.299, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 33.63, "rotation_up": 23.87, "upward_expansion": 3.26, "deceleration": 56.72, "rotation_down": 44.75, "downward_expansion": 76.59 }, "activity_lines": [ 13.67, 13.717273, 13.821667, 14.092366 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 13.7, "trend_reference": 14.693333, "distance_from_trend": -0.067604, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 15.405701, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.110719, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -38.392153, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.174699, "excess_performance": -0.616071, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.067604, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.072586, "read": "Falling" 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13.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.434783, "directional_follow_through": 0.478261, "median_excess_return": 0.008101, "regime_survival": 0.869565, "best_return": 0.503846, "worst_return": -0.130435, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.006369, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.046325, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.291536, "worst_return": -0.076923, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.121661, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.079082, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.229851, "worst_return": -0.109694, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"typical_volume": 814682.3, "trend": 15.156667, "fair_value": 15.357034, "relative_strength": -38.661791, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.959966, "energy": 38.736344, "activity_lines": [ 13.77, 13.796364, 13.971667, 14.424624 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 13.75, "volume": 612142, "typical_volume": 789183.15, "trend": 15.03, "fair_value": 15.36937, "relative_strength": -37.970625, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.373151, "energy": 31.020256, "activity_lines": [ 13.763333, 13.785455, 13.92881, 14.333871 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 13.65, "volume": 927158, "typical_volume": 742744.65, "trend": 14.91, "fair_value": 15.382302, "relative_strength": -36.68218, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.909956, "energy": 33.993014, "activity_lines": [ 13.72, 13.759091, 13.886429, 14.244839 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 13.65, "volume": 459491, "typical_volume": 706023.3, "trend": 14.803333, "fair_value": 15.393686, "relative_strength": -37.338424, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.775853, "energy": 34.73435, "activity_lines": [ 13.666667, 13.732727, 13.849524, 14.163548 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 13.7, "volume": 465523, "typical_volume": 671389.2, "trend": 14.693333, "fair_value": 15.405701, "relative_strength": -38.392153, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.169403, "energy": 30.435126, "activity_lines": [ 13.67, 13.717273, 13.821667, 14.092366 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }