{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2329cc55-6c51-4185-882f-ccd5f433a195", "symbol": "CSWC", "name": "Capital Southwest Corporation", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 82.708, "architecture_energy": 73.119, "architecture_maturity": 18.683, "architecture_confidence": 75.77, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 16.34, "rotation_up": 72.14, "upward_expansion": 87.71, "deceleration": 46.38, "rotation_down": 12.51, "downward_expansion": 14.38 }, "activity_lines": [ 24.173935, 23.823721, 23.477477, 23.093773 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 25.13, "trend_reference": 22.669416, "distance_from_trend": 0.108542, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 19.709202, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.275039, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 1.902594, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.136151, "excess_performance": -0.051302, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.108542, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.049055, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.275039, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.038071, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.019026, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.074266, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.136151, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.620779, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4182233, "relative_activity": 1.290988, "balance": 1.620779, "dry_up": 1.104904, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.034619, "annualized_volatility": 0.194863, "from_high_reference": -0.004161, "from_low_reference": 0.413295 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 22.669416, "fair_value_reference": 19.709202, "structural_low": 20.584392, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 29, "median_return": 0.012111, "positive_rate": 0.517241, "directional_follow_through": 0.517241, "median_excess_return": -0.020054, "regime_survival": 0.655172, "best_return": 0.086016, "worst_return": -0.136375, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.036327, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.012109, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.145812, "worst_return": -0.116734, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.075893, "positive_rate": 0.857143, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": -0.031156, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.21977, "worst_return": -0.206943, "sufficient": true }, { 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"typical_volume": 3184809.1, "trend": 22.556448, "fair_value": 19.649325, "relative_strength": 0.45931, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 56.816402, "energy": 54.740983, "activity_lines": [ 23.699198, 23.496709, 23.26903, 22.927738 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 25.13, "volume": 4182233, "typical_volume": 3239559.2, "trend": 22.669416, "fair_value": 19.709202, "relative_strength": 1.902594, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 82.70786, "energy": 73.119155, "activity_lines": [ 24.173935, 23.823721, 23.477477, 23.093773 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }