{ "ticker": { "uuid": "232f4b4c-3eb2-4c23-aa3f-b4b3f02c6f8c", "symbol": "AKZO", "name": "Akzo Nobel N.V.", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 84.62, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Momentum cooling", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 73.389, "architecture_energy": 48.687, "architecture_maturity": 18.559, "architecture_confidence": 67.396, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 31.16, "rotation_up": 53.34, "upward_expansion": 77.88, "deceleration": 57.57, "rotation_down": 21.17, "downward_expansion": 6.88 }, "activity_lines": [ 60.533334, 59.793455, 57.875075, 56.388936 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 63.720001, "trend_reference": 55.491822, "distance_from_trend": 0.148277, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 57.213426, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.113725, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -7.653603, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.117269, "excess_performance": -0.056978, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.148277, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.022378, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.113725, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.233933, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.076536, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.152789, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.117269, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.508975, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 0.508975, "dry_up": 1.901508, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.063101, "annualized_volatility": 0.490271, "from_high_reference": -0.057118, "from_low_reference": 0.416848 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 55.491822, "fair_value_reference": 57.213426, "structural_low": 44.973082, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.003585, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.011383, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.151937, "worst_return": -0.059724, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.000911, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.082231, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.126086, "worst_return": -0.120895, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.035737, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.161359, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.174429, "worst_return": -0.174605, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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"fair_value": 57.391861, "relative_strength": -14.541716, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 45.687356, "energy": 32.292291, "activity_lines": [ 58.445333, 58.556182, 55.979453, 55.294872 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 57.84, "volume": 510, "typical_volume": 253.4, "trend": 55.194814, "fair_value": 57.309124, "relative_strength": -14.257539, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 42.573308, "energy": 26.500466, "activity_lines": [ 58.096, 58.577818, 56.360802, 55.467225 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 61.060001, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 253.4, "trend": 55.298661, "fair_value": 57.24853, "relative_strength": -9.137416, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 54.448353, "energy": 30.6351, "activity_lines": [ 58.897334, 59.026182, 57.017137, 55.845624 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 63.720001, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 212.2, "trend": 55.491822, "fair_value": 57.213426, "relative_strength": -7.653603, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "up", "direction": 73.388808, "energy": 48.687101, "activity_lines": [ 60.533334, 59.793455, 57.875075, 56.388936 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }