{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2332dec9-d978-4151-b8c9-0c560fb9cb5f", "symbol": "IRWD", "name": "Ironwood Pharmaceuticals Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 49.131, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 26.434, "architecture_energy": 15.123, "architecture_maturity": 29.421, "architecture_confidence": 64.749, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 45.81, "rotation_up": 40.78, "upward_expansion": 42.88, "deceleration": 39.61, "rotation_down": 33.54, "downward_expansion": 17.21 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.122667, 4.076182, 3.970905, 3.912667 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 4.32, "trend_reference": 3.961333, "distance_from_trend": 0.090542, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 4.977943, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.132172, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 17.510092, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.052632, "excess_performance": -0.240085, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.090542, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.0542, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.132172, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.107248, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.175101, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.294216, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.052632, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.57934, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 17001390, "relative_activity": 1.542298, "balance": 1.57934, "dry_up": 0.96758, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.129637, "annualized_volatility": 0.737392, "from_high_reference": -0.252595, "from_low_reference": 4.333333 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.961333, "fair_value_reference": 4.977943, "structural_low": 2.95, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.033557, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.454545, "median_excess_return": 0.006693, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 0.271845, "worst_return": -0.168014, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.12911, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.009546, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 2.048544, "worst_return": -0.277583, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.070569, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": 0.028137, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 3.368932, "worst_return": -0.394084, "sufficient": true 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"New", "return": 0.23301, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.05303, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "Established", "return": 1.206452, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-06", "end": "2026-06-05", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.054286, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-06-12", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.183562, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 9.96, "volume": 13501612, "typical_volume": 10954100.3, "trend": 10.808333, "fair_value": 11.384359, "relative_strength": -22.777591, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after 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"close": 3.71, "volume": 6202728, "typical_volume": 11818934.5, "trend": 3.954, "fair_value": 5.059033, "relative_strength": 10.466346, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 9.106981, "energy": 18.556021, "activity_lines": [ 4.012667, 3.926909, 3.881952, 3.871161 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.23, "volume": 9887526, "typical_volume": 11822149.7, "trend": 3.952667, "fair_value": 5.014802, "relative_strength": 22.972397, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 25.336021, "energy": 18.342236, "activity_lines": [ 4.056, 3.996182, 3.92419, 3.888968 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.32, "volume": 17001390, "typical_volume": 11023416.3, "trend": 3.961333, "fair_value": 4.977943, "relative_strength": 17.510092, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 26.43359, "energy": 15.12284, "activity_lines": [ 4.122667, 4.076182, 3.970905, 3.912667 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }