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Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-21", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 55.774, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -54.003, "architecture_energy": 35.599, "architecture_maturity": 13.405, "architecture_confidence": 91.429, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 41.78, "rotation_up": 17.08, "upward_expansion": 3.8, "deceleration": 52.17, "rotation_down": 52.17, "downward_expansion": 74.8 }, "activity_lines": [ 42.189999, 42.659091, 45.661428, 46.804301 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 43.799999, "trend_reference": 47.41, "distance_from_trend": -0.076144, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 28.944037, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.513265, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -13.298443, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.055422, "excess_performance": -0.290311, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.076144, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.07799, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.513265, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.346608, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.132984, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.284521, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.055422, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.818436, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2346640, "relative_activity": 0.146019, "balance": 0.818436, "dry_up": 0.275523, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.1513, "annualized_volatility": 0.859961, "from_high_reference": -0.349183, "from_low_reference": 1.361186 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 47.41, "fair_value_reference": 28.944037, "structural_low": 34.5, 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"close": 40.25, "volume": 3209440, "typical_volume": 20774888.35, "trend": 47.866666, "fair_value": 28.669235, "relative_strength": -16.616325, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -39.901031, "energy": 48.274143, "activity_lines": [ 42.96, 47.093636, 48.232619, 48.387204 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 37.400002, "volume": 3965860, "typical_volume": 20309267.5, "trend": 47.695, "fair_value": 28.69918, "relative_strength": -21.702708, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -46.778555, "energy": 62.683229, "activity_lines": [ 40.610001, 44.916364, 47.113333, 47.711935 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 40.799999, "volume": 4121901, "typical_volume": 18119449.95, "trend": 47.518333, "fair_value": 28.757154, "relative_strength": -16.95609, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.732047, "energy": 68.161133, "activity_lines": [ 40.07, 43.613637, 46.36, 47.267097 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 44.099998, "volume": 7277060, "typical_volume": 16595220.7, "trend": 47.555, "fair_value": 28.841582, "relative_strength": -13.570831, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.397134, "energy": 53.146275, "activity_lines": [ 41.14, 43.1, 45.997619, 47.046559 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-21", "close": 43.799999, "volume": 2346640, "typical_volume": 16070787.6, "trend": 47.41, "fair_value": 28.944037, "relative_strength": -13.298443, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.00309, "energy": 35.599439, "activity_lines": [ 42.189999, 42.659091, 45.661428, 46.804301 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }