{ "ticker": { "uuid": "23386d92-7c1f-45b1-befc-1a2aa906753d", "symbol": "WPC", "name": "Vallianz Holdings Limited", "exchange": "SES", "country": "SG", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^STI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -52.661, "architecture_energy": 27.048, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 82.92, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.39, "rotation_up": 35.43, "upward_expansion": 22.02, "deceleration": 41.27, "rotation_down": 36.96, "downward_expansion": 60.69 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.055733, 0.054509, 0.05581, 0.057168 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 0.048, "trend_reference": 0.059833, "distance_from_trend": -0.197772, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.044833, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.070632, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -36.95444, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.272727, "excess_performance": -0.427562, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.197772, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.111826, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.070632, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.365661, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.369544, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.325857, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.272727, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.199512, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 25400, "relative_activity": 0.091415, "balance": 2.199512, "dry_up": 1.22123, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.128205, "annualized_volatility": 0.696878, "from_high_reference": -0.636364, "from_low_reference": 0.263158 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.059833, "fair_value_reference": 0.044833, "structural_low": 0.041, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 27, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.481481, "median_excess_return": 0.007469, "regime_survival": 0.740741, "best_return": 0.666667, "worst_return": -0.206897, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.023524, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.020717, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.37931, "worst_return": -0.25641, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.068966, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.078734, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.740741, "worst_return": -0.25, "sufficient": true }, { 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"Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-07-05", "end": "2024-07-26", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.216216, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-08-02", "end": "2024-11-15", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.044444, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2024-12-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.125, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.057143, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.081081, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.1, "active": 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"trend": 0.064333, "fair_value": 0.043987, "relative_strength": -17.916777, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.291523, "energy": 48.866207, "activity_lines": [ 0.057267, 0.058327, 0.059119, 0.061105 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 0.046, "volume": 214700, "typical_volume": 542535.0, "trend": 0.063067, "fair_value": 0.044058, "relative_strength": -33.72439, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -86.169074, "energy": 75.851384, "activity_lines": [ 0.053467, 0.055891, 0.057724, 0.059923 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 0.051, "volume": 30000, "typical_volume": 506795.0, "trend": 0.062267, "fair_value": 0.044167, "relative_strength": -27.283849, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.076831, "energy": 71.018498, "activity_lines": [ 0.052133, 0.054655, 0.0569, 0.059144 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 0.051, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 439950.0, "trend": 0.0616, "fair_value": 0.044244, "relative_strength": -30.278197, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.070402, "energy": 75.532544, "activity_lines": [ 0.051267, 0.053636, 0.056162, 0.058417 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.05, "volume": 165600, "typical_volume": 385595.0, "trend": 0.061067, "fair_value": 0.044333, "relative_strength": -32.003775, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.163697, "energy": 79.881589, "activity_lines": [ 0.0504, 0.052618, 0.055433, 0.057669 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.063, "volume": 1126300, "typical_volume": 394955.0, "trend": 0.061133, "fair_value": 0.044526, "relative_strength": -15.64967, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -23.368897, "energy": 20.994806, "activity_lines": [ 0.0544, 0.054182, 0.056014, 0.057794 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.064, "volume": 40000, "typical_volume": 311630.0, "trend": 0.060567, "fair_value": 0.044731, "relative_strength": -15.076093, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -5.082249, "energy": 14.532212, "activity_lines": [ 0.058333, 0.055855, 0.056686, 0.057978 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.048, "volume": 25400, "typical_volume": 277855.0, "trend": 0.059833, "fair_value": 0.044833, "relative_strength": -36.95444, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.660841, "energy": 27.047618, "activity_lines": [ 0.055733, 0.054509, 0.05581, 0.057168 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }