{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "233b4f45-51a7-45ef-a15a-5d17468ec7fe",
    "symbol": "MBUU",
    "name": "Malibu Boats Inc",
    "exchange": "NASDAQ",
    "country": "US",
    "assetType": "equity"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "QQQ",
    "stage": 1,
    "stage_name": "Basing",
    "phase": "1b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing",
    "transition": "stage_1_building",
    "transition_label": "Base still building",
    "confidence": 59.834,
    "architecture_regime": "balance",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Balance",
    "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline",
    "architecture_gate": "mixed",
    "architecture_direction": 24.607,
    "architecture_energy": 20.698,
    "architecture_maturity": 20.593,
    "architecture_confidence": 41.818,
    "architecture_tenure": "Developing",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 47.44,
        "rotation_up": 49.5,
        "upward_expansion": 44.07,
        "deceleration": 32.77,
        "rotation_down": 27.25,
        "downward_expansion": 18.4
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        28.057333,
        27.643818,
        27.380619,
        27.341247
      ],
      "activity_state": "Compressed",
      "activity_direction": "Expanding",
      "rotation_direction": "Improving",
      "price_acceptance": 0.333333
    },
    "latest_close": 28.88,
    "trend_reference": 27.973333,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.032412,
    "trend_direction": "Weakening",
    "fair_value": 36.057885,
    "distance_from_fair_value": -0.199066,
    "fair_value_direction": "Improving",
    "relative_strength": -13.997836,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Improving",
    "price_momentum": -0.075544,
    "excess_performance": -0.262998,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.032412,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.012404,
        "read": "Falling"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.199066,
        "read": "Below anchor"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.019209,
        "read": "Closing upward"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.139978,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.042719,
        "read": "Improving"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.075544,
        "read": "Negative"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": false,
        "value": 0.922842,
        "read": "Supply-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 954146,
      "relative_activity": 0.617995,
      "balance": 0.922842,
      "dry_up": 0.626584,
      "accumulation_observations": 1,
      "distribution_observations": 1
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.100722,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.475756,
      "from_high_reference": -0.271627,
      "from_low_reference": 0.211409
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 27.973333,
      "fair_value_reference": 36.057885,
      "structural_low": 23.84,
      "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 21,
        "median_return": -0.04089,
        "positive_rate": 0.428571,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.428571,
        "median_excess_return": -0.047779,
        "regime_survival": 0.52381,
        "best_return": 0.157043,
        "worst_return": -0.202972,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 10,
        "median_return": -0.119453,
        "positive_rate": 0.3,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.3,
        "median_excess_return": -0.137441,
        "regime_survival": 0.1,
        "best_return": 0.097504,
        "worst_return": -0.295185,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 8,
        "median_return": -0.121303,
        "positive_rate": 0.125,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.125,
        "median_excess_return": -0.211186,
        "regime_survival": 0.375,
        "best_return": 0.022087,
        "worst_return": -0.239063,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": -0.202166,
        "positive_rate": 0.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.0,
        "median_excess_return": -0.339561,
        "regime_survival": 0.5,
        "best_return": -0.06293,
        "worst_return": -0.330827,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2025-01-17",
        "end": "2025-01-31",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.078592,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-02-07",
        "end": "2025-02-28",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.12572,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-03-07",
        "end": "2025-06-06",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": -0.038485,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
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        "end": "2025-07-11",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.131596,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2025-07-18",
        "end": "2025-08-22",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.190823,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-08-29",
        "end": "2025-09-12",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.016265,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
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        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.131234,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2025-11-07",
        "end": "2025-11-14",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.03346,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
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        "end": "2026-01-09",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.232794,
        "active": false
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      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
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        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.024107,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
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        "return": -0.030154,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
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        "return": -0.185899,
        "active": false
      },
      {
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        "return": 0.046807,
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      {
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        "return": 0.035868,
        "active": true
      }
    ],
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        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
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        "energy": 39.15032,
        "activity_lines": [
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        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-01",
        "close": 25.71,
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        "typical_volume": 1297954.0,
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        "fair_value": 38.652436,
        "relative_strength": -26.816708,
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        "energy": 31.116401,
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        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
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        "typical_volume": 1371030.1,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-15",
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        "fair_value": 38.316154,
        "relative_strength": -27.880344,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established contraction",
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
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        "typical_volume": 1483549.35,
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        "energy": 17.326441,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
        "close": 27.46,
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        "typical_volume": 1513244.5,
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        "stage": 4,
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        "modifier": "Established contraction",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
        "close": 26.39,
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        "typical_volume": 1539126.1,
        "trend": 28.327667,
        "fair_value": 37.760897,
        "relative_strength": -25.244449,
        "stage": 4,
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        "modifier": "Established contraction",
        "gate": "down",
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        "energy": 17.515149,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
        "close": 27.88,
        "volume": 1192151,
        "typical_volume": 1567206.7,
        "trend": 28.409667,
        "fair_value": 37.568974,
        "relative_strength": -22.19206,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-19",
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
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        "typical_volume": 1611329.45,
        "trend": 28.443667,
        "fair_value": 37.191346,
        "relative_strength": -16.831655,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "down",
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        "energy": 5.746147,
        "activity_lines": [
          27.775333,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
        "close": 25.07,
        "volume": 1292699,
        "typical_volume": 1627686.6,
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        "fair_value": 36.993397,
        "relative_strength": -27.308545,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
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        "energy": 17.124069,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
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        "typical_volume": 1666397.6,
        "trend": 28.233333,
        "fair_value": 36.807885,
        "relative_strength": -23.025118,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -31.251767,
        "energy": 14.920153,
        "activity_lines": [
          26.840667,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 28.17,
        "volume": 1119570,
        "typical_volume": 1671436.65,
        "trend": 28.191667,
        "fair_value": 36.618974,
        "relative_strength": -14.761159,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -20.112382,
        "energy": 8.984602,
        "activity_lines": [
          27.184667,
          27.206727,
          27.003524,
          27.359505
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 27.7,
        "volume": 911522,
        "typical_volume": 1591483.7,
        "trend": 28.138,
        "fair_value": 36.42141,
        "relative_strength": -14.061003,
        "stage": 1,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -14.541796,
        "energy": 8.175142,
        "activity_lines": [
          27.352667,
          27.306727,
          27.104905,
          27.327785
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 27.57,
        "volume": 884388,
        "typical_volume": 1556231.5,
        "trend": 28.103333,
        "fair_value": 36.23391,
        "relative_strength": -14.277634,
        "stage": 1,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -12.574734,
        "energy": 7.059107,
        "activity_lines": [
          27.447333,
          27.356182,
          27.184714,
          27.29114
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 28.88,
        "volume": 954146,
        "typical_volume": 1543936.9,
        "trend": 27.973333,
        "fair_value": 36.057885,
        "relative_strength": -13.997836,
        "stage": 1,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 24.606762,
        "energy": 20.697555,
        "activity_lines": [
          28.057333,
          27.643818,
          27.380619,
          27.341247
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}